Mozambique Channel: Tropical Cyclone Batsirai tracking westwards across Mozambique Channel early Feb. 7 /update 12

Event

Tropical Cyclone Batsirai is tracking westwards across the Mozambique Channel early Feb. 7 following landfall over Mananjary District on the east coast of Madagascar at around 20:00 Feb. 5. As of 03:00 EAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 228 km (142 miles) east-southeast of Europa Island. Forecast models indicate the system will maintain its strength as it turns southwards in the Mozambique Channel through early Feb. 10, with no further landfall forecast. However, slight uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Disruptions occurred in Mauritius and Reunion as Batsirai passed north of the islands Feb. 2-4. Flights have resumed at Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam International Airport (MRU) in Mauritius. In Reunion, storm-related incidents resulted in at least 12 injuries. As of Feb. 6, around 14,000 people, mainly in the municipalities of Le Tampon, Saint-Denis, Saint-Joseph, and Saint-Paul, remain without power. More than 37,000 people, mostly in Le Tampon, Petite-Ile, Saint-Joseph, and Saint-Paul municipalities, are also without water supply. Flights at Roland Garros Airport (RUN) are operational. The RN5 Route de Cilaos has reopened with a temporary closure scheduled 08:00-08:45 Feb. 7 in the Brunel and Petit-Serre sectors.

Madagascar is still recovering from the Jan. 22 passage of Tropical Storm Ana that caused widespread flooding. Reports indicate at least 10 fatalities due to Batsirai. At least 43,000 people, mostly from Analamanga, Atsinanana, Vatovy, Fitovinany, and Atsimo Atsinanana regions, remain evacuated in 180 shelters nationwide.

Government Advisories
The Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology has issued a blue post-hazard vigilance for Amoron'i Mania, Androy, Anosy, Antanambao Manampotsy, Atsimo Andrefana, Atsimo Atsinanana, Fitovinany, Haute Matsiatra, Ihorombe, Mahabo, Mahanoro, Manja, Marolambo, Morondava, Vakinankaratra, Vatomandry, and Vatovavy regions. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge.

Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology (French)
Meteo France Reunion (French)