Turkey: Adverse weather forecast across northern, central, and southern regions through at least Feb. 10 /update 1

Event

Severe weather, including heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, snowfall, sleet, and strong winds, is forecast across parts of northern, central, and southern Turkey through at least Feb. 10.

Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, with snowfall over higher ground, are forecast across eastern parts of the Mediterranean Region through late Feb. 9. Strong winds are expected across western parts of the Mediterranean Region Feb. 9 before moving inland Feb. 10. Heavy rainfall will turn to sleet and snowfall over southern and eastern parts of Marmara Region Feb. 9, with over 20 cm (8 inches of snowfall possible over southern Bursa and Sakarya provinces. Similar amounts of snowfall, as well as strong winds, are forecast in southern and eastern parts of Central Anatolia Region through Feb. 10. Strong winds are expected across the Black Sea Region Feb. 9 and heavy rainfall and snowfall are forecast for western parts of the region through Feb. 10.

As of Feb. 9, the Turkish State Meteorological Service has issued the following weather warnings across the affected region:

• Orange heavy snowfall warnings (second-highest level on a four-tier scale): Bartin, Bolu, Cankiri, Duzce, Karabuk, Kastamonu, Sakarya, Sinop, and Zonguldak provinces.

• Orange strong wind warnings: Artvin, Giresun, Rize, and Trabzon provinces.

• Yellow thunderstorm warnings: Adana, Hatay, Mersin, Kahramanmaras, and Osmaniye provinces.

• Yellow heavy snowfall warnings: Aksaray, Hatay, Kahramanmaras, Karaman, Kayseri, Konya, Mersin, Nevsehir, Nigde, Osmaniye, Sivas, and Yozgat provinces.

• Yellow strong wind warnings: Adana, Aksaray, Ankara, Antalya, Bayburt, Burdur, Cankiri, Gumushane, Isparta, Mersin, Kahramanmaras, Karaman, Kayseri, Kirikkale, Kirsehir, Konya, Mugla, Nevsehir, Nigde, Sivas, and Yozgat provinces.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
Heavy precipitation (including rain and snow) is expected across the affected area. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water and in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout the affected area.

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall. The disruptive weather may cause some delays and cancellations at regional airports. Flooding or snow could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Turkish State Meteorological Service