23 Feb 2022 | 10:41 AM UTC
US: Adverse weather forecast across parts of the South, Ohio Valley, Northeast, and Southeast regions through at least Feb 25 /update 1
Adverse weather forecast across South, Ohio Valley, Northeast, and Southeast regions, US through Feb 25. Travel, utility disruptions likely.
Event
A system is forecast to bring heavy rainfall and adverse winter weather to parts of the South, Ohio Valley, Northeast, and Southeast regions through at least Feb. 25. A significant winter storm is forecast across the Southern Plains Feb. 23-24, over the Ohio Valley late Feb. 23-24, and over the Northeast late Feb. 24-25. Ice accumulations of up to 1.3 cm (0.5 inches) are likely from the Red River Valley of Texas through the Ozarks and southeast Missouri; power outages and damage to trees are possible. Freezing rain and sleet are forecast from North Texas through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and from the eastern Ohio Valley through the central Appalachians. Significant ice accumulations are possible across south-central Pennsylvania and western Maryland. Heavy snow is forecast over Upstate New York and New England and a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is likely for the northern Mid-Atlantic Feb. 25. Hazardous travel conditions are likely.
Government Advisories
The US National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center has warned of a "Slight Risk" of excessive rainfall across parts of east-central Arkansas, southeastern Missouri, and western Tennessee through early Feb. 24 and across portions of the Tennessee and Ohio valleys and into the Northeast Feb. 24 through early Feb. 25.
Authorities have warned that moderate to heavy wintry precipitation is likely across the Southern Plains through the Mid-Mississippi, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England through at least Feb. 25. Freezing rain is forecasted in the Southern Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley, especially in eastern Oklahoma and along the Ozarks Feb. 23 and from the eastern Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic as well as the Ozarks Feb. 24. Heavy snow of more than 15 cm (6 inches) is likely from the Catskills through much of New England except the south coast and far northern Maine Feb. 25.
As of early Feb. 23, the National Weather Service has issued flood and flash flood watches and warnings for northern Alabama, far northwestern Georgia, southeastern Kentucky, western and northern New York, Tennessee, Vermont, and southwestern West Virginia. Winter storm watches are in place for northern Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma. Winter storm warnings are in place over northern Arkansas, southern Illinois, far western Kentucky, southern Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, and far western Tennessee while winter weather advisories have been issued over central Arkansas, northern Maine, central Missouri, central Oklahoma, and much of Texas. Winter storm watches are also in effect across northeastern Connecticut, southern Maine, much of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.
Hazardous Conditions
The storm could produce rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow) and strong winds. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.
Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout the affected area.
Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.
Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. American Airlines has canceled more than 600 flights Feb. 23 and more than 450 flights Feb. 24 at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW). Southwest Airlines and SkyWest have also canceled dozens of flights at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW). Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.
Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.
Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
