Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Gombe forms, tracking westwards in the Indian Ocean; landfall forecast over Sava Region, Madagascar early March 8

Event

Tropical Cyclone Gombe has formed and is tracking westwards in the Indian Ocean early March 8. As of 00:01 EAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 544 km (338 miles) northeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar. Forecast models indicate the system will make landfall as a tropical storm over northern Madagascar's Sava Region in the coming hours.

The storm system will weaken into a tropical depression as it tracks west-northwestward over Analanjirofo and Sofia regions in northern Madagascar through early March 9 before exiting into the Mozambique Channel. Gombe is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm as it tracks westward then southwestwards in the Mozambique Channel through March 12. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Madagascar is still recovering from the passage of a series of tropical cyclones in the past few weeks, resulting in hundreds of deaths and much damage across the country. Additional rainfall and strong winds are likely to hamper recovery efforts.

Government Advisories
The Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology has warned maritime users to avoid going out to sea between Sambava and Brickaville districts due to adverse weather conditions. As of 16:00 EAT March 7, authorities are maintaining the following warnings ahead of the storm's approach:

• Yellow level (the middle level on a three-tier scale) threat alerts: Analanjirofo and Sava regions.

• Green level warning alerts: Alaotra-Mangoro Region and Befandriana-Nord, Bealanana, Mandritsara, Brickaville, Vatomandry, Antanambao Manampotsy, Toamasina I, and Toamasina II districts.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge.

Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology (French)