Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone Gombe makes landfall over northeastern Madagascar March 8 /update 1

Event

Tropical Cyclone Gombe made landfall around 40 km (35 miles) north of Cap Masoala in Sava Region early March 8 and is tracking westwards over northern Madagascar. As of 09:00 EAT, the storm's center of circulation was located over Maraontsetra District, approximately 439 km (273 miles) north-northeast of Antananarivo. The system has weakened to a tropical depression upon making landfall.

Forecast models indicate the system will maintain its current strength as it tracks west-northwest over Sofia Region March 8, before exiting into the Mozambique Channel early March 9. Gombe is forecast to strengthen into a moderate and then severe tropical storm as it tracks generally west-southwestward in the Mozambique Channel March 9-11, before making landfall over Nampula Province, Mozambique March 11. The storm system is forecast to weaken upon landfall, dissipating over northeastern Mozambique on March 13. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Madagascar is still recovering from the passage of a series of tropical cyclones in the past few weeks, resulting in hundreds of deaths and much damage across the country. Additional rainfall and strong winds are likely to hamper recovery efforts.

Government Advisories
As of 10:00 EAT March 8, the Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology has issued the following cyclone warnings:

• Yellow level (the middle level on a three-tier scale) threat alerts: Andapa, Bealanana, Befandriana North, Brickaville, Fenoarivo Atsinanana, Manampotsy, Mandritsara, Sambava, Soanierana Ivongo, St. Marie, Toamasina I-II, Vatomandry, and Vohemar districts.

• Green level warning alert: Alaotra Mangoro Region.

• Blue post-hazard vigilance alerts: Antalaha, Mananara Avaratra, and Maraontsetra districts.

Yellow heavy rain warnings have also been issued for parts of northwestern Madagascar, including Sofia and Boeny regions and the Sambirano River area of Diana Region. Red strong wind warnings have been issued across the northeast and northwest coastlines. Maritime users have been warned to avoid going out to sea between Vohemar and Mahanroro districts and along the northwest coast due to adverse weather conditions.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge.

Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology (French)