Mozambique Channel: Moderate Tropical Storm Gombe tracking westward as of March 9 /update 3

Event

Moderate Tropical Storm Gombe is tracking westward in the Mozambique Channel as of March 9 after moving across northern Madagascar March 8. As of 09:00 EAT March 9, the storm's center of circulation was located approximately 483 km (300 miles) north-northwest of Antananarivo. The system has restrengthened into a moderate tropical storm after weakening over land in northern Madagascar and forecast models indicate the system will intensify further into a tropical cyclone as it tracks west-southwestward in the Mozambique Channel March 9-10. The system is forecast to weaken slightly to a severe tropical storm as it turns to track westward before making landfall in Mozambique's Nampula Province March 11. Gombe is subsequently forecast to weaken upon making landfall as it tracks westward over Nampula Province March 12 before ultimately dissipating over Zambezia Province March 13. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

There have been no reports as yet of major disruptions or fatalities associated with Gombe in northern Madagascar; however, damage assessments are likely to still be being carried out and it may take some time before the full extent of the storm's impact is known. Madagascar is still recovering from the passage of a series of tropical cyclones in recent weeks, resulting in hundreds of deaths and much damage across the country. Additional rainfall and strong winds are likely to hamper recovery efforts.

Government Advisories
The Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology has lifted all cyclone alerts as of March 9; however, a red strong winds warning (the highest level on a three-tier scale) has been issued for the northwest coastline between Antsiranana and Maintirano. Red heavy rain warnings have also been issued for northwestern areas and yellow warnings are in place across much of the rest of northern Madagascar.

The Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued red tropical cyclone warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for Nampula and Zmabezia provinces. More than 20 cm (8 inches) of rainfall is expected to fall in 24 hours across the affected areas. Locally heavy downpours are also possible in parts of Cabo Delgado, Niassa, and Tete provinces.

Malawi's Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) has issued an initial bulletin regarding the approach of Gombe. The service has stated that the storm system is not currently impacting weather conditions over the country but will likely enhance rainfall across parts of the country from March 11. The tropical cyclone will be closely monitored and warnings will be communicated in due course as necessary.

Meteo France Mayotte has issued orange heavy rainfall and thunderstorm warnings (the middle tier on a three-tier scale) across the territory due to the passing of the storm system to the south.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and places with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge.

Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.