Mozambique Channel: Severe Tropical Storm Gombe tracking west-southwestward in the Mozambique Channel as of March 10 /update 4

Event

Severe Tropical Storm Gombe is tracking west-southwestward in the Mozambique Channel as of March 10 after tracking over northern Madagascar March 8. As of 08:00 CAT March 10, the storm's center of circulation was located approximately 783 km (487 miles) north-northeast of Europa Island. Forecast models indicate the system will intensify further into a tropical cyclone as it tracks west-southwestward and then west-northwestward towards the northeast coast of Mozambique, before making landfall in Mozambique's Nampula Province early March 11. Gombe is subsequently forecast to weaken to a tropical storm upon making landfall as it tracks westward over Nampula Province March 11-12. The storm system will weaken further to a zone of disturbed weather as it turns to track southwestward over Zambezia Province March 12, before restrengthening to a tropical depression and then to a moderate tropical storm as it tracks south-southeastward and then southeastward back out into the Mozambique Channel March 13-14. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Following initial assessments by Madagascar's National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC), two fatalities have been reported and one person is missing following the passage of Gombe over northern regions of the country. The storm affected at least 935 people across Analanjirofo, Sava, and Sofia regions, including 321 displaced people in Maroantsetra District in Analanjirofo Region and an unconfirmed number in Antalaha District in Sava Region.

Government Advisories
The Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued red tropical cyclone warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for Nampula and Zmabezia provinces. More than 20 cm (8 inches) of rainfall is expected to fall in 24 hours across the affected areas. Locally heavy downpours are also possible in parts of Cabo Delgado, Niassa, and Tete provinces.

Malawi's Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) has issued an initial bulletin regarding the approach of Gombe. The tropical cyclone will be closely monitored and warnings will be communicated in due course as necessary. Rainfall and thunderstorms are forecast across much of the country March 10.

Madagascar's General Directorate of Meteorology has lifted all cyclone warnings as of March 10; however, thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are forecast to persist in the northwest of the country early March 10 and will spread across much of the country throughout the day.

Meteo France Mayotte is maintaining orange heavy rainfall and thunderstorm warnings (the middle tier on a three-tier scale) across the territory due to the passing of the storm system to the southwest.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and places with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge.

Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.