Mozambique, Malawi: Tropical Cyclone Gombe tracking west-southwestward over far southern Malawi March 12 /update 9

Event

Tropical Cyclone Gombe is tracking west-southwestward over the southwestern Southern Region in Malawi March 12, having made landfall in Moginucal District, Nampula Province, Mozambique, early March 11. As of 23:00 CAT March 12, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 222 km (138 miles) southeast of Lilongwe, Malawi. Forecast models indicate the system will maintain its strength as it turns to tracks southwestward before dissipating over Chikwawa District, Malawi, early March 13. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

It is likely to take some time for damage assessments to be completed due to the ongoing disruptions caused by the storm system. At least 10 people have died across Nampula Province due to collapsed houses and falling debris and 20 others have been injured. Authorities are reporting communication outages in some areas of Nampula Province, including the Island of Mozambique and the Liupo and Mossuril districts, which is likely to hamper the gathering of information regarding the storm's impact. Electricidade de Mocambique (EDM), the state power company, said 20 districts in Nampula Province are without power, affecting more than 300,000 people. Water supply disruptions have also been reported in Nampula City. Reports indicate that more than 2,220 houses have been destroyed and more than 1,400 other houses damaged. The bridge connecting Mulela and Nabur to Pebane Village in Zambezia Province has collapsed due to heavy rain, isolating more than 32,000 residents in Mulela and Nabur. Seven evacuation shelters have been set up in Monapo and Larde districts; authorities have yet to provide an estimation of the number of people hosted in the shelters.

Gombe previously passed over northern Madagascar March 8. Madagascar's National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC) initial assessments indicate one fatality in Antsohihy City, Sofia Region, and one missing person. The storm affected at least 935 people across Analanjirofo, Sava, and Sofia regions, including 321 displaced people in Maroantsetra District, Analanjirofo Region, and an unconfirmed number of people in Antalaha District, Sava Region.

Government Advisories
The Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued red warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for heavy rain and strong winds across portions of Nampula, Niassa, and Tete provinces through March 14. The Mozambique Regional Administration of Waters (ARA) has warned of significant rises in water levels in the Licungo, Ligonha, Meluli, and Monapo basins due to the recent heavy rain; riverside communities are advised to take precautionary measures.

While Malawi's Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) has issued an initial bulletin regarding Gombe's approach, no weather warnings or advisories are in effect as of March 12. Authorities warn that flooding is possible in most rivers in the Shire and Ruo catchments; search and rescue personnel has been dispatched to search and rescue due to the risk of flash floods through March 13.

Madagascar's General Directorate of Meteorology has lifted all cyclone warnings as of March 12.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and places with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge.

Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology (French)
Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) (Portuguese)
Malawi Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS)