Mozambique: Tropical Cyclone Gombe tracking west-southwestward over far northern Zambezia Province early March 12 /update 8

Event

Tropical Cyclone Gombe is tracking west-southwestward over far northern Zambezia Province in northern Mozambique early March 12, having made landfall in Moginucal District, Nampula Province, early March 11. As of 11:00 CAT March 12, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 850 km (528 miles) north-northwest of Europa Island. Forecast models indicate the system will maintain its strength as it tracks west-southwestward along the border between Niassa and Zambezia provinces through the evening of March 12 before entering the Southern Region of Malawi late March 12 and turning to track southwestward over the far western parts of the region through early March 13. Gombe is then likely to re-enter Zambezia Province in Mozambique and gradually turn to track south-southeastwards then southeastwards over the province before reemerging in the Mozambique Channel by March 14. The system will subsequently strengthen into a moderate tropical storm as it travels southeastward in the Mozambique Channe through early March 17. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

It is likely to take some time for damage assessments to be completed due to the ongoing disruptions caused by the storm system. At least seven people have died across Nampula Province due to collapsed houses and falling debris. Authorities have reported communication outages in some areas of Nampula Province, including the Island of Mozambique and the Liupo and Mossuril districts, which is likely to hamper the gathering of information regarding the storm's impact. Initial reports suggest the storm has caused significant damage in Angoche, Mogincual, and Monapo districts. Power outages and water supply disruptions have been reported in Nampula City. LAM Mozambique Airlines canceled flights in Nampula City early March 12; flights are scheduled to resume from the afternoon of March 12.

Gombe previously passed over northern Madagascar March 8. Madagascar's National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC) initial assessments indicate one fatality in Antsohihy City, Sofia Region, and one missing person. The storm affected at least 935 people across Analanjirofo, Sava, and Sofia regions, including 321 displaced people in Maroantsetra District, Analanjirofo Region, and an unconfirmed number of people in Antalaha District, Sava Region.

Government Advisories
The Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued red tropical cyclone warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for Nampula and Zambezia provinces. More than 20 cm (8 inches) of rainfall is forecast to fall within 24 hours across some affected areas, and gusts of up to 160 kph (100 mph) are possible. The heavy rainfall will be accompanied by thunderstorms and strong winds, with gusts of up to 160 kph (99 mph). Locally heavy downpours and thunderstorms are also possible in parts of Cabo Delgado, Niassa, and Tete provinces.

While Malawi's Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) has issued an initial bulletin regarding Gombe's approach, no weather warnings or advisories are in effect as of early March 12. Authorities warn that flooding is possible in most rivers in the Shire and Ruo catchments.

Madagascar's General Directorate of Meteorology has lifted all cyclone warnings as of early March 12.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and places with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge.

Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology (French)
Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) (Portuguese)
Malawi Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS)