Myanmar: Anti-military activists likely to stage demonstrations nationwide March 27 on Armed Forces Day

Event

The Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) will celebrate Armed Forces Day nationwide March 27. Officials will hold events at parade squares and military facilities in Naypyidaw and other cities across the country, including in urban centers like Yangon and Mandalay. Each ceremony will probably involve dozens to hundreds of participants.

Additionally, the events will likely prompt large demonstrations by anti-coup activists. The largest protests may occur outside government buildings and in other popular protest sites, such as public squares, in major cities like Yangon and Mandalay. Likely action sites in Yangon include the Bogyoke Aung San and Mahabandula parks and Sule Pagoda. Hundreds to thousands of people will probably participate in larger demonstrations.

Authorities will likely implement increased security measures at any protest locations. Tight security is probable at government buildings and near critical infrastructure nationwide. Localized transport and business disruptions are likely during any demonstration, especially if activists set up roadblocks by parking cars in the middle of streets. Clashes between pro-democracy activists and security forces are likely if protests occur. Security personnel could use force to disperse gatherings; officers and troops have used live fire and violence to stop previous rallies. Officials may disrupt telecommunication networks in anticipation of or in response to any large or disruptive protests, as well as in areas where clashes occur.

Further explosions, especially those targeting security personnel and facilities, may occur in rural areas and urban centers, including Yangon, Mandalay, and Naypyidaw. Armed clashes between the Tatmadaw (Myanmar military) and anti-coup activists or armed ethnic insurgent groups could also intensify; areas experiencing armed clashes include Chin, Kachin, Kayah, Mon, Rakhine, and Shan states and Mandalay and Sagaing regions.

Context

Anti-military activists have continued to hold rallies across Myanmar since the Feb. 1, 2021, military coup. Former State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi. Aung San Suu Kyi has received prison terms and is facing additional court hearing for various charges, including possessing walkie-talkies and violating COVID-19 measures; opponents of the military claim that the charges are politically motivated.

Advice

Strictly avoid any protests, government buildings, security installations, and large concentrations of police and soldiers. Monitor local developments, especially rally plans, closely, as organizers may not announce details in advance. If a demonstration forms nearby, immediately leave the area, seek shelter at a safe non-government building, and stay away from windows. Heed all official security instructions. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.