02 Oct 2024 | 03:15 AM UTC
Myanmar: Attacks in major cities likely during national census through Oct. 15 amid ongoing clashes in several states nationwide /update 15
Attacks in major cities likely during national census through Oct. 15 amid ongoing clashes across Myanmar. Significant disruptions continue.
Increased security is likely in major cities, especially Mandalay, Naypyidaw, and Yangon, due to an elevated likelihood of attacks by urban guerillas during the nationwide population and household census Oct. 1-15. The junta is holding the national census ahead of the elections tentatively planned for 2025.
Explosions targeting junta positions and administrative offices involved in the national census have been reported in Yangon and Mandalay since Sept. 29, injuring several people; further attacks are likely. Anti-regime groups typically stage bombings and assassinations of junta members or people considered to support the Tatmadaw (armed forces); they have also sabotaged military and other government facilities in various urban areas. Additionally, some activists have targeted individuals, organizations, and facilities owned by foreign nationals from China and other countries that allegedly support the Tatmadaw. While some explosions have caused collateral damage and civilian casualties, most attacks in urban centers are small-scale and inflict limited injuries and property damage.
A notable deployment of patrolling and plainclothes officers is likely in major cities, with the tightest security likely around census offices, government and military facilities, schools, and religious buildings. Following calls from activist groups to resist involvement in the census effort, an increased frequency of anti-junta demonstrations is also possible through Oct. 15.
Clashes between anti-junta groups in Kachin State have renewed since early September, with violence concentrated around Hseung Tang village, Hpakant, Momauk, Bhamo, and Shwegu. The state capital, Myitkyina, remains unaffected, though increased security has been reported. A communications and internet blackout that began July 21 continues in Kachin State.
Intense clashes persist in northern regions, such as Bago, Chin, Kayah, Kachin, Kayin, Mon, and Rakhine states, upper Sagaing and Magway regions, and near border checkpoints with China, Thailand, India, and Bangladesh. Bomb and drone attacks primarily targeted military installations, military-controlled villages, security checkpoints, and major interstate highways. Although militants do not specifically target them, they have attacked junta positions near structures and buildings with foreign ties. The military often responds to attacks by militant groups with artillery fire and airstrikes.
Increased Security
Tight security continues within and at entry points of major cities, including Yangon and Mandalay. Curfews remain in Sittwe and Ann Township, Rakhine State, and multiple northern areas of Shan State, including Lashio; a night curfew is active in all townships of Yangon except Seikkyi Kanaungto and Dala, 01:00-03:00. Martial law is in place across at least 37 townships, including within Bago, Chin, Mon, and Karen, Kayah states and Magway, Sagaing, and Tanintharyi regions; such movement restrictions and closures of nonessential businesses are likely in other regions if clashes continue.
Transport and shipping disruptions
Ground transport disruptions are occurring between:
Townships within Shan and Mon States.
Lashio and Mandalay.
Yangon and Sittwe.
Chin State and Sagaing Region.
Chin State and Magwe Region.
Mandalay-Moegoke and Mandalay-Myitkyina routes 19:00-06:00 daily since June 25 due to armed groups' warnings.
Additionally, all ground and river transport connecting Rakhine State is blocked. Intermittent ground transport and shipping disruptions affect trade with China, Bangladesh, India, and Thailand. Airports that have recently experienced intermittent violence-related closures include Kalaymyo Airport (KMV), Lashio Airport (LSH), Loikaw Airport (LIW), and Thandwe Airport (SNW). Mandalay (MDL) and Naypyidaw (NYT) international airports could also experience delays due to increased traffic from military aircraft. Anti-regime groups could target airports, potentially causing flight service suspensions.
Utility disruptions
Conflict-hit areas of the Kachin State, northern Mandalay Region, northern Shan State, northern Rakhine State, and the Sagaing Region have been most affected by utility and telecommunications outages. Fuel shortages occur intermittently nationwide, with the Sagaing Region and Rakhine State facing the most severe shortages. Security restrictions, infrastructure damage, and supply issues may cause similar disruptions at short notice in other impacted areas, including Yangon and Mandalay. Electricity disruptions can result in the temporary unavailability of essential services, such as ATMs, petrol stations, and internet and mobile data, as well as severe commercial and transport disruptions. Banking services and cash withdrawals are restricted or halted in many areas, especially in Rakhine State.
Internet disruptions
The junta has imposed fresh internet restrictions since May 31, notably banning Virtual Private Networks (VPN), which are mainly used to access banned social media and messaging platforms. Officials are also reportedly conducting random checks of personal devices to search for the presence and use of prohibited applications in the Yangon, Mandalay, Ayeyarwady, Bago, and Magway regions. Some local businesses have experienced disruptions due to reduced online traffic and access. Limited VPN services and messaging platforms such as Telegram remain accessible.
Civil unrest
There is an extant risk of nationwide anti-junta demonstrations, including marches and roadblocks, mainly over mandatory military conscription and any fresh security curbs. Popular gathering spots include government buildings, monuments, and public squares. Protest activity often spikes over holidays and other significant dates, such as scheduled court hearings involving cases against National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders. Internet service restrictions have repeatedly delayed the reporting of related rallies. However, the scale and frequency of protests in major urban centers like Yangon have significantly declined in recent months due to tight security. Military and police personnel may use water cannons, tear gas, rubber bullets, and/or live ammunition to disperse protesters; reports indicate regime forces have also previously arrested non-violent demonstrators since February 2021.
Consider avoiding travel to the conflict-affected areas until the situation stabilizes. Heed all official security instructions. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission. Reconfirm the status of border crossings and land routes near the Chinese, Bangladeshi, and Indian borders before travel. Consider alternative shipping methods for time-sensitive freight. Monitor local developments closely. Carry proper identification documents to present at security checks and heed all instructions from security personnel; remain cooperative if stopped for inspections. If a demonstration or fighting occurs nearby, immediately leave the area, seek shelter at a safe, nongovernment building, and stay away from windows.
Significant territorial losses by the Tamatdaw have continued in conflict zones since the launch of "Operation 1027" on Oct. 27, 2023. "Operation 1027" is an offensive led by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, comprising the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army (AA). Although various armed groups operate in the area, the latest clashes have seen a notably high level of coordination; the National Unity Government has also declared its support for the offensive. Other allied resistance groups include the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Bamar People's Liberation Army, and the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force (KNDF). Since Oct. 27, 2023, the military has lost approximately half of its 5,280 military bases, headquarters, and outposts amid coordinated attacks by a coalition of anti-regime militant groups. The conflict has displaced over 3 million people, killed at least 5,161 civilians, and seen the detention of more than 20,500 individuals perceived to be anti-regime since February 2021. Related air strikes have also caused casualties, including in border regions of Bangladesh and China. Armed clashes have persisted despite the Chinese government attempting to mediate temporary ceasefire agreements.
Multiple countries continue to advise against all or nonessential travel to Myanmar or affected regions like the northern areas of Mandalay Region and Shan State.
