Myanmar: Armed clashes persist in several states nationwide as of Nov. 19 /update 17

Intense clashes persist in northern regions of Myanmar as of Nov. 19. Multiple countries continue to advise against all or nonessential travel to Myanmar or hotspot regions like the northern areas of Mandalay Region and Shan State. Worst affected areas include Bago, Chin, Kayah, Kachin, Kayin, Mon, Rakhine, and Shan states, Mandalay, Magway, and upper Sagaing regions, and near border checkpoints with China, Thailand, India, and Bangladesh. Tensions are especially escalated as of mid-November in Falam and Mindat towns in Chin State, Rakhine's State Kyaukphyu - where private bank closures and departures of Chinese workers have been reported - and Madaya of Mandalay region.

Bomb and drone attacks primarily target military installations, military-controlled villages, security checkpoints, and major interstate highways. Although militants do not typically target foreign entities, they have seized control of factories with foreign ties, as well as attacked junta positions near structures and buildings with foreign links including the Chinese consulate in Mandalay. The military often responds to attacks by militant groups with artillery fire and airstrikes.

Anti-regime groups have staged bombings and assassinations of junta members or people considered to support the Tatmadaw; they have also sabotaged military and other government facilities in various urban areas. Additionally, some activists have targeted individuals, organizations, and facilities owned by foreign nationals from China and other countries that allegedly support the Tatmadaw. While some explosions have caused collateral damage and civilian casualties, most attacks in urban centers are small-scale and inflict limited injuries and property damage. Authorities will likely impose heightened security measures at incident sites, resulting in localized disruptions.

Increased Security

Tight security continues within and at entry points of major cities, including Yangon and Mandalay. Curfews remain in Sittwe and Ann Township, Rakhine State, and multiple northern areas of Shan State, including Lashio; a night curfew is active in all townships of Yangon except Seikkyi Kanaungto and Dala, 01:00-03:00. Martial law is in place across at least 37 townships, including within Bago, Chin, Mon, and Karen, Kayah states and Magway, Sagaing, and Tanintharyi regions; such movement restrictions and closures of nonessential businesses are likely in other regions if clashes continue.

Transport and shipping disruptions

Ground transport disruptions are occurring between:

• Townships within Shan and Mon States.

• Lashio and Mandalay.

• Yangon and Sittwe.

• Chin State and Sagaing Region.

• Chin State and Magwe Region.

• Mandalay-Moegoke and Mandalay-Myitkyina routes 19:00-06:00 daily since June 25 due to armed groups' warnings.

Additionally, all ground and river transport connecting Rakhine State is blocked. Intermittent ground transport and shipping disruptions affect trade with China, Bangladesh, India, and Thailand. Airports that have recently experienced intermittent violence-related closures include Kalaymyo Airport (KMV), Lashio Airport (LSH), Loikaw Airport (LIW), and Thandwe Airport (SNW). Mandalay (MDL) and Naypyidaw (NYT) international airports could also experience delays due to increased traffic from military aircraft. Anti-regime groups could target airports, potentially causing flight service suspensions.

Utility disruptions

Conflict-hit areas of the Kachin State, northern Mandalay Region, northern Shan State, northern Rakhine State, and the Sagaing Region have been most affected by utility and telecommunications outages. Fuel shortages occur intermittently nationwide, with the Sagaing Region and Rakhine State facing the most severe shortages. Security restrictions, infrastructure damage, and supply issues may cause similar disruptions at short notice in other impacted areas, including Yangon and Mandalay. Electricity disruptions can result in the temporary unavailability of essential services, such as ATMs, petrol stations, and internet and mobile data, as well as severe commercial and transport disruptions. Banking services and cash withdrawals are restricted or halted in many areas, especially Rakhine State. Internet restrictions have affected Virtual Private Networks (VPN) and social media and messaging platforms since May 31. Officials are also reportedly conducting random checks of personal devices to search for the presence and use of prohibited applications in the Yangon, Mandalay, Ayeyarwady, Bago, and Magway regions.

Civil unrest

There is an extant risk nationwide of anti-junta demonstrations, including marches and roadblocks, mainly over mandatory military conscription and any fresh security curbs. Popular gathering spots include government buildings, monuments, and public squares. Protest activity often spikes over holidays and other significant dates, such as scheduled court hearings involving cases against National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders. Internet service restrictions have repeatedly delayed the reporting of related rallies. However, the scale and frequency of protests in major urban centers like Yangon have significantly declined in recent months due to tight security. Military and police personnel may use water cannons, tear gas, rubber bullets, and/or live ammunition to disperse protesters; reports indicate regime forces have also previously arrested non-violent demonstrators since February 2021.