Myanmar: Armed clashes persist in several states nationwide as of Nov. 22 /update 18

Intense clashes persist in northern regions of Myanmar as of Nov. 22. According to local media sources, Arakan Army (AA) has occupied at least 10 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State and continues to attack Gwa, Maungdaw, and Taungup townships, as well as Ann Township, as of Nov. 21. In Ann Township, the armed group reportedly continues its offensive on the Western Regional Military Headquarters after taking control of Ann Airport (VBA) and the highways connecting to Taungup Township and Maei; flights will likely remain suspended at VBA in the coming weeks. Additionally, AA militants have reportedly taken up positions at Kyaukphyu-Zinchaung road approximately 10 km (6 miles) from Kyaukphyu, where several prominent foreign-linked projects are located. Junta forces are bolstering security at military installments around the town border and at military facilities, especially Danyawady Naval Base. Chinese workers employed in Kyaukphyu are reportedly evacuating and private banks have been closed since Nov. 15. Entry restrictions are also affecting the availability of essential goods and medicine.

Multiple countries continue to advise against all or nonessential travel to Myanmar or hotspot regions like the northern areas of Mandalay Region and Shan State. Worst affected areas include Bago, Chin, Kayah, Kachin, Kayin, Mon, Rakhine, and Shan states, Mandalay, Magway, and upper Sagaing regions, and near border checkpoints with China, Thailand, India, and Bangladesh. Aside from Rakhine State, tensions are especially heightened as of mid-November in Falam and Mindat towns in Chin State, Moe Bye, and Pekon in southern Shan State, and Madaya of Mandalay region.

Bomb and drone attacks primarily target military installations, military-controlled villages, security checkpoints, and major interstate highways. Although militants do not typically target foreign entities, they have seized control of factories with foreign ties, as well as attacked junta positions near structures and buildings with foreign links including the Chinese consulate in Mandalay. The military often responds to attacks by militant groups with artillery fire and airstrikes.

Anti-regime groups have staged bombings and assassinations of junta members or people considered to support the Tatmadaw; they have also sabotaged military and other government facilities in various urban areas. Additionally, some activists have targeted individuals, organizations, and facilities owned by foreign nationals from China and other countries that allegedly support the Tatmadaw. While some explosions have caused collateral damage and civilian casualties, most attacks in urban centers are small-scale and inflict limited injuries and property damage. Authorities will likely impose heightened security measures at incident sites, resulting in localized disruptions.

Increased Security

Tight security continues within and at entry points of major cities, including Yangon and Mandalay. Curfews remain in Sittwe and Ann Township, Rakhine State, and multiple northern areas of Shan State, including Lashio; a night curfew is active in all townships of Yangon except Seikkyi Kanaungto and Dala, 01:00-03:00. Martial law is in place across at least 37 townships, including within Bago, Chin, Mon, and Karen, Kayah states and Magway, Sagaing, and Tanintharyi regions; such movement restrictions and closures of nonessential businesses are likely in other regions if clashes continue.

Transport and shipping disruptions

Ground transport disruptions are occurring between:

• Townships within Shan and Mon States.

• Townships within Rakhine State.

• Mandalay, Lashio, and Muse.

• Yangon and Sittwe.

• Chin State and Sagaing Region.

• Chin State and Magwe Region.

• Mandalay-Moegoke 19:00-06:00 daily since June 25 due to armed groups' warnings.

• Mandalay-Myitkyina Road.

Additionally, all ground and river transport connecting Rakhine State is blocked. Intermittent ground transport and shipping disruptions affect trade with China, Bangladesh, India, and Thailand; as of Nov. 21, Chinese authorities have closed all land border checkpoints near Kachin State. Airports that have recently experienced intermittent violence-related closures include Ann Airport (VBA), Kalaymyo Airport (KMV), Lashio Airport (LSH), Loikaw Airport (LIW), and Thandwe Airport (SNW). Magway (MWQ) and Pathein airports (BSX), and Mandalay (MDL) and Naypyidaw (NYT) international airports could also experience delays due to increased traffic from military aircraft. Anti-regime groups could target airports, potentially causing flight service suspensions.

Utility disruptions

Severe power disruptions persist nationwide; from Oct. 31, electricity will only be available to industrial zones nationwide for four hours daily. Conflict-hit areas of the Kachin State, northern Mandalay Region, northern Shan State, northern Rakhine State, and the Sagaing Region have been most affected by utility and telecommunications outages. Fuel shortages occur intermittently nationwide, with the Kachin State, northern Shan State, Rakhine State facing the most severe shortages. Security restrictions, infrastructure damage, and supply issues may cause similar disruptions at short notice in other impacted areas, including Yangon and Mandalay. Electricity disruptions can result in the temporary unavailability of essential services, such as ATMs, petrol stations, and internet and mobile data, as well as severe commercial and transport disruptions. Banking services and cash withdrawals are restricted or halted in many areas, especially Rakhine State. Internet restrictions have affected Virtual Private Networks (VPN) and social media and messaging platforms since May 31. Officials are also reportedly conducting random checks of personal devices to search for the presence and use of prohibited applications in the Yangon, Mandalay, Ayeyarwady, Bago, and Magway regions.

Civil unrest

There is an extant risk nationwide of anti-junta demonstrations, including marches and roadblocks, mainly over mandatory military conscription and any fresh security curbs. Popular gathering spots include government buildings, monuments, and public squares. Protest activity often spikes over holidays and other significant dates, such as scheduled court hearings involving cases against National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders. Internet service restrictions have repeatedly delayed the reporting of related rallies. However, the scale and frequency of protests in major urban centers like Yangon have significantly declined in recent months due to tight security. Military and police personnel may use water cannons, tear gas, rubber bullets, and/or live ammunition to disperse protesters; reports indicate regime forces have also previously arrested non-violent demonstrators since February 2021.