13 Dec 2024 | 08:43 AM UTC
Myanmar: Armed clashes persist in several states nationwide as of Dec. 13, with significant disruptions in Rakhine State /update 19
Armed clashes continue across Myanmar as of Dec. 13. Severe disruptions and violence affecting some areas, especially in Rakhine State.
Intense clashes persist in northern regions of Myanmar as of Dec. 13. Rakhine State remains the worst affected, with ongoing blockades of ground and river transport, shortages of essential items like food and medicine, private bank closures, and reported evacuations of foreign workers. The Arakan Army (AA) has seized control of the Myanmar-Bangladesh border at Maungdaw town in Rakhine State, and banned transit along the Naf River. AA currently controls 12 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State, and continues to attack Gwa and Taungup townships, as well as the Western Regional Military Headquarters in Ann Township after taking control of Ann Airport (VBA) and the highways connecting to Taungup Township and Maei; flights will likely remain suspended at VBA in the coming weeks. Additionally, military officials have intensified security in Kyaukphyu, Sittwe, and Manaung areas, mainly near military facilities and foreign-linked projects. Aside from Rakhine State, tensions are especially heightened in Falam and Mindat towns in Chin State, Moe Bye and Pekon in southern Shan State, and Madaya of Mandalay region due to junta efforts to regain control or prevent armed groups' advances.
Multiple countries continue to advise against all or nonessential travel to Myanmar or hotspot regions like the northern areas of Mandalay Region and Shan State. Worst affected areas include Bago, Chin, Kayah, Kachin, Kayin, Mon, Rakhine, and Shan states, Mandalay, Magway, and upper Sagaing regions, and near border checkpoints with China, Thailand, India, and Bangladesh.
Bomb and drone attacks primarily target military installations, military-controlled villages, security checkpoints, and major interstate highways. Although militants do not typically target foreign entities, they have seized control of factories with foreign ties, as well as attacked junta positions near structures and buildings with foreign links including the Chinese consulate in Mandalay. The military often responds to attacks by militant groups with artillery fire and airstrikes.
Anti-regime groups have staged bombings and assassinations of junta members or people considered to support the Tatmadaw; they have also sabotaged military and other government facilities in various urban areas. Additionally, some activists have targeted individuals, organizations, and facilities owned by foreign nationals from China and other countries that allegedly support the Tatmadaw. While some explosions have caused collateral damage and civilian casualties, most attacks in urban centers are small-scale and inflict limited injuries and property damage. Authorities will likely impose heightened security measures at incident sites, resulting in localized disruptions.
Increased Security
Tight security continues within and at entry points of major cities, including Yangon and Mandalay. A night curfew is active in all townships of Yangon except Seikkyi Kanaungto and Dala, 01:00-03:00; a similar curfew is active across Mon State 20:00-04:00. Martial law is in place across at least 37 townships, including within Bago, Chin, Mon, and Karen, Kayah states and Magway, Sagaing, and Tanintharyi regions; such movement restrictions and closures of nonessential businesses are likely in other regions if clashes continue.
Transport and shipping disruptions
Ground transport disruptions are occurring between:
Townships within Shan and Mon States.
Townships within Rakhine State.
Mandalay, Lashio, and Muse.
Yangon and Sittwe.
Chin State and Sagaing Region.
Chin State and Magwe Region.
Mandalay-Moegoke 19:00-06:00 daily since June 25 due to armed groups' warnings.
Mandalay-Myitkyina Road.
Intermittent ground transport and shipping disruptions affect trade with China, Bangladesh, India, and Thailand; all land border checkpoints with China in Kachin State are under the control of anti-junta groups and remain closed indefinitely. Only 50 vehicles and 200 motorcycles are permitted to cross the Sinphyu border trade gate in Shan State's Muse daily as of early December.
Airports that have recently experienced intermittent violence-related closures include Ann Airport (VBA), Bhamo Airport (BMO), Kalaymyo Airport (KMV), Lashio Airport (LSH), Loikaw Airport (LIW), and Thandwe Airport (SNW). Magway (MWQ) and Pathein airports (BSX), and Mandalay (MDL) and Naypyidaw (NYT) international airports could also experience delays due to increased traffic from military aircraft. Anti-regime groups could target airports, potentially causing flight service suspensions.
Utility disruptions
Severe power disruptions persist nationwide; effective since Oct. 31, electricity is only available to industrial zones nationwide for four hours daily. Conflict-hit areas of Kachin State, northern Mandalay Region, northern Shan State, northern Rakhine State, and Sagaing Region have been most affected by utility and telecommunications outages. Fuel shortages occur intermittently nationwide, with Kachin State, northern Shan State, and Rakhine State facing the most severe shortages. Security restrictions, infrastructure damage, and supply issues may cause similar disruptions at short notice in other impacted areas, including Yangon and Mandalay. Electricity disruptions can result in the temporary unavailability of essential services, such as ATMs, petrol stations, and internet and mobile data, as well as severe commercial and transport disruptions. Banking services and cash withdrawals are restricted or halted in many areas, especially Rakhine State. Internet restrictions have affected Virtual Private Networks (VPN) and social media and messaging platforms since May 31. Officials are also reportedly conducting random checks of personal devices to search for the presence and use of prohibited applications in Yangon, Mandalay, Ayeyarwady, Bago, and Magway regions.
Civil unrest
There is an extant risk nationwide of anti-junta demonstrations, including marches and roadblocks, mainly over mandatory military conscription and any fresh security curbs. Popular gathering spots include government buildings, monuments, and public squares. Protest activity often spikes over holidays and other significant dates, such as scheduled court hearings involving cases against National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders. Internet service restrictions have repeatedly delayed the reporting of related rallies. However, the scale and frequency of protests in major urban centers like Yangon have significantly declined in recent months due to tight security. Military and police personnel may use water cannons, tear gas, rubber bullets, and/or live ammunition to disperse protesters; reports indicate regime forces have also previously arrested non-violent demonstrators since February 2021.
Consider avoiding travel to the conflict-affected areas until the situation stabilizes. Heed all official security instructions. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission. Reconfirm the status of border crossings and land routes near the Chinese, Bangladeshi, and Indian borders before travel. Consider alternative shipping methods for time-sensitive freight. Monitor local developments closely. Carry proper identification documents to present at security checks and heed all instructions from security personnel; remain cooperative if stopped for inspections. If a demonstration or fighting occurs nearby, immediately leave the area, seek shelter at a safe, nongovernment building, and stay away from windows.
Significant territorial losses by the Tamatdaw have continued in conflict zones since the launch of "Operation 1027" on Oct. 27, 2023. "Operation 1027" is an offensive led by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, comprising the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army (AA). Although various armed groups operate in the area, the latest clashes have seen a notably high level of coordination; the National Unity Government has also declared its support for the offensive. Other allied resistance groups include the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the Bamar People's Liberation Army, and the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force (KNDF). Since Oct. 27, 2023, the military has lost approximately half of its 5,280 military bases, headquarters, and outposts amid coordinated attacks by a coalition of anti-regime militant groups. The conflict has displaced over three million people, killed at least 5,161 civilians, and seen the detention of more than 20,500 individuals perceived to be anti-regime since February 2021. Related air strikes have also caused casualties, including in border regions of Bangladesh and China. Armed clashes have persisted despite the Chinese government attempting to mediate temporary ceasefire agreements.
