10 Mar 2022 | 11:29 AM UTC
Turkey: Adverse weather forecast across much of the country through at least March 14 /update 1
Severe weather forecast across much of Turkey through at least March 14. Flights canceled in Istanbul; further disruptions likely.
Event
Heavy snowfall, rainfall, strong winds, and thunderstorms are forecast across much of Turkey through at least March 14. Heavy snowfall is forecast in Istanbul and surrounding areas March 10-11. Snowfall accumulations of 10-20 cm (4 inches) are expected across Istanbul Province, with heavier isolated accumulations, and will be accompanied by strong winds and cold temperatures. Blizzards and freezing temperatures are expected to impact Istanbul March 13.
As of March 10, the Turkish State Meteorological Service has issued the following weather warnings across the country:
Orange heavy snowfall warnings (second-highest level on a four-tier scale): Istanbul Province.
Yellow heavy rain warnings: Sirnak Province.
Yellow snowfall warnings: Ardahan, Agri, Antalya, Artvin, Balikesir, Bartin, Bayburt, Bilecik, Bingol, Bitlis, Bursa, Duzce, Erzincan, Erzurum, Giresun, Gumushane, Hakkari, Karaman, Kars, Kastamonu, Kayseri, Kirklareli, Kocaeli, Konya, Mus, Nevsehir, Nigde, Ordu, Rize, Sakarya, Samsun, Sinop, Sirnak, Sivas, Tekirdag, Tokat, Trabzon, Tunceli, Van, Yavlova, and Zonguldak provinces.
Yellow thunderstorm warnings: Adana, Adiyaman, Antalya, Batman, Diyarbakir, Hatay, Kahramanmaras, Osmaniye, Sanliurfa, Siirt, and Sirnak provinces.
Yellow strong wind warnings: Agri, Aydin, Balikesir, Bilecik, Bingol, Bursa, Canakkale, Edirne, Erzurum, Hakkari, Istanbul, Izmir, Kirklareli, Kocaeli, Manisa, Mugla, Mus, Sakarya, Tekirdag, and Van provinces.
Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.
Due to the forecast adverse weather, national carrier Turkish Airlines (TK) has canceled over 200 flights to and from Istanbul Airport (IST) and Sabiha Gokcen Airport (SAW) scheduled March 10 and a similar number have been canceled scheduled March 11. Further cancelations are likely in the coming days. Authorities in Istanbul have suspended intercity buses, closed shopping malls, restricted the arrival of heavy goods vehicles, and banned the use of motorcycles and scooters in the city. Schools in the province will be closed until at least March 14.
Hazardous Conditions
The adverse weather could produce rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity across affected areas. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water and in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.
Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in affected areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout the affected area.
Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.
The disruptive weather will likely cause some delays and cancellations at airports across Turkey. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding/snow could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.
Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
