02 Mar 2022 | 02:15 PM UTC
Turkey: Adverse weather forecast across much of the country through at least March 5 /update 1
Severe weather forecast across much of Turkey through at least March 5. Possible transport, business, and utility disruptions.
Event
Heavy rainfall, snowfall, and strong winds are forecast across much of Turkey through at least March 5. Heavy snowfall of up to 20 cm (8 inches) and frost is expected across parts of western, southern, central, and southeastern Turkey March 2, becoming more widespread across the rest of Turkey except for the northwest from March 3. Heavy rainfall is expected along parts of the Mediterranean coast March 2-3, which may be accompanied by lightning and could cause flash flooding in affected areas.
As of March 2, the Turkish State Meteorological Service has issued the following weather warnings across the affected region:
Orange heavy rain warnings (second-highest level on a four-tier scale): Adana, Antalya, Hatay, Kahramanmaras, and Osmaniye provinces.
Yellow heavy rain warnings: Adana, Adiyaman, Batman, Denizli, Diyarbakir, Mersin, Mugla, Siirt and Sanilurfa provinces.
Yellow snowfall warnings: Afyonkarahisar, Ankara, Bingol, Bitlis, Burdur, Cankiri, Corum, Denizili, Erzincan, Hakkari, Isparta, Kirikkale, Kirsehir, Konya, Mugla, Mus, Siirt, Sirnak, and Tunceli provinces.
Yellow wind warnings: Adana, Antalya, Kahramanmaras, Karaman, Kayseri, Konya, Mersin, Nigde, Osimanye and Sivas provinces.
Yellow agricultural frost warnings: Aydin, Balikesir, Canakkale, Izmir, and Manisa provinces.
Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.
In addition to the wintry precipitation, strong wind gusts could lead to periods of blowing and drifting snow. Sporadic power outages are likely throughout the affected area.
Hazardous Conditions
The adverse weather could produce rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity across affected areas. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water and in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.
Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout the affected area.
Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.
The disruptive weather will likely cause some delays and cancellations at regional airports. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding/snow could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.
Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
