Madagascar: Tropical Depression Jasmine tracking eastwards across southern Madagascar early April 27 /update 4

Event

Tropical Depression Jasmine is tracking eastward over Anosy Region in southern Madagascar early April 27. As of 06:00 EAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 572 km (355 miles) south-southwest of Antananarivo. Forecast models indicate the system will emerge off Madagascar's Atsimo-Atsinanana Region into the Indian Ocean the afternoon of April 27 before taking a turn to the northeast and passing well northwest of Reunion the afternoon of April 28. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early April 27, the Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology has issued a blue cyclone alert as the worst of Jasmine has passed. However, flood, strong wind, and swell warnings remain in place. Red flood warnings have been issued along the Fiherenana River in Atsimo-Andrefana Region. Red heavy swell warnings have been issued for parts of the southwestern and southern coastlines, and yellow heavy swell warnings for parts of the southeast and western coastlines. Green heavy swell warnings are in place for parts of the eastern coastline. Red strong winds warnings are in place for parts of the southwestern and southern coastlines and yellow strong wind warnings have been issued for parts of the eastern coastline. Authorities have advised against going out to sea. Authorities will likely publish new advisories or update/rescind existing alerts throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region, such as Morombe Airport (MXM), and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology (French)