Myanmar: Anti-military activists likely to stage demonstrations nationwide through early May following new prison sentence for Aung San Suu Kyi

Event

Anti-coup activists will likely stage demonstrations nationwide through early May following a new five-year prison sentence for former State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi for corruption charges. The largest protests may occur outside government buildings and in other popular protest sites, such as public squares, in major cities like Yangon and Mandalay. Hundreds to thousands of people will probably participate in larger demonstrations.

Authorities will likely implement increased security measures at any protest locations. Tight security is probable at government buildings and near critical infrastructure nationwide. Localized transport and business disruptions are likely during any demonstration, especially if activists set up roadblocks by parking cars in the middle of streets. Clashes between pro-democracy activists and security forces are likely if protests occur. Security personnel could use force to disperse gatherings; officers and troops have used live ammunition and violence to stop previous rallies. Officials may disrupt telecommunication networks in anticipation of or in response to any large or disruptive protests, as well as in areas where clashes occur.

Explosions, especially those targeting security personnel and facilities, may occur in rural areas and urban centers, including Yangon, Mandalay, and Naypyidaw. Armed clashes between the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) and anti-coup activists or armed ethnic insurgent groups could also intensify.

Context

The April 27 prison verdict comes amid ongoing unrest following the February 2021 military coup, when the Tatmadaw seized power from the elected civilian leaders from the National League for Democracy (NLD) party. Aung San Suu Kyi had also received other prison terms for several charges, including possessing walkie-talkies and violating COVID-19 measures; the military's opponents claim that the court sentences against Aung San Suu Kyi and other NLD leaders are politically motivated.

Advice

Strictly avoid any protests, government buildings, security installations, and large concentrations of police and soldiers. Monitor local developments, especially rally plans, closely, as organizers may not announce details in advance. If a demonstration forms nearby, immediately leave the area, seek shelter at a safe non-government building, and stay away from windows. Heed all official security instructions. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.