Iran: Anti-government protests likely in cities nationwide through at least late May

Event

Anti-government demonstrations remain possible across Iran through at least the end of May in response to the government's decision to cut bread subsidies. Actions will probably grow in scale and intensity unless authorities reverse the directive. Security forces reportedly used lived ammunition during violent demonstrations in Khuzestan Province on May 12, wounding multiple protesters. Officials have also shut down internet service in some areas of Khuzestan Province to prevent activists from mobilizing; further disruptions to communication networks remain possible.

Protests over the bread subsidies and inflation in general could spread over the coming weeks to other cities and provinces across Iran, such as Abadan, Ardebil, Bandar Abbas, Birjand, Gachsaran, Khorramshahr, Mahshahr, Shiraz, Tabriz, and Tehran. Prominent rally sites may include prominent public squares, city centers, and near government buildings. Transport disruptions are likely near any demonstrations that may materialize. Civil society associations, labor organizations, and political groups could potentially enhance the impact of protests by staging labor strikes. Counterprotests and clashes between demonstrators and security forces, or among rival activist groups, could occur.

Authorities will likely maintain a heightened security posture in major cities until it becomes clear whether the protests will spread. Security forces may respond forcefully, to include using tear gas, water cannon, and baton charges, to any instances of civil unrest, especially if participants are overly disruptive or fail to heed orders to disperse.

Advice

Avoid all large gatherings, as well as areas where security forces have deployed. Plan accordingly for ground transport disruptions and allow extra time to reach destinations in major cities, especially near likely protest locations such as public squares and government buildings. Heed the instructions of security personnel. If violence breaks out nearby, leave the area immediately and seek shelter in a secure, non-government building.