South Pacific: Tropical Low Gina tracking southwards in the South Pacific Ocean as of late May 19 /update 2

Event

Tropical Low Gina is tracking southwards in the South Pacific Ocean close to the east coast of Vanuatu's central islands as of late May 19. As of 23:00 VUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 69 km (43 miles) northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu. Forecast models indicate the system will maintain its strength as it turns to track generally southwestward, making landfall over Efate Island, Vanuatu, early May 20. The storm is then forecast to continue track generally southwest into the Coral Sea May 20-21, before turning to track south-southwestward and weakening into a tropical depression late May 21. The system is then expected to weaken further as it turns to track south-southeastward May 22, making a close approach to the Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early May 20, the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department have issued tropical cyclone warnings for Malampa and Shefa provinces. The department has warned that heavy rainfall and flooding in low-lying and riverine areas are possible over central islands May 20, along with extremely rough sea conditions. Severe weather warnings have been issued for strong inland winds of 48-65 kph (30-40 mph) over most of Vanuatu and for heavy rainfall and possible flooding over the central and southern islands of Vanuatu May 20. Marine warnings for strong winds and extremely heavy swells have also been issued for all Vanuatu waters.

Meteo France New Caledonia has warned that although the storm is likely to weaken before reaching the territory, heavy rainfall and strong winds are expected May 20-21, especially over the Loyalty Islands and far south. As of May 19, yellow strong wind warnings have been issued for Lifou, Ouvea, and much of Grande Terre islands.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department
Meteo France New Caledonia