Tajikistan: Up to nine people killed and dozens more detained during security operation in Rushan District, GBAO, May 18 /update 1

Event

Increased security measures will likely persist in Tajikistan's Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) through late May following numerous arrests and the death of a prominent local leader amid a major security operation that began May 17 in response to anti-government protests. The Interior Ministry claims that two members of the banned Islamic Revival Party and 15 members of a local organized crime group have turned themselves in since the operation began. It is unclear how the leader of the Upper Khorog District Council, Mahmadbokir Mahmadbokirov, was killed; however, precedent suggests his unexplained death may prompt protests in Khorog and possibly elsewhere. The ministry further claims that eight suspected members of armed criminal groups and one soldier have been killed during the security operation, while 24 others have been wounded. Some sources have put the casualty figure closer to 40 dead; however, all casualty figures remain unconfirmed.

Internet and telecommunication services with at least Rushan and Khorog, but likely the wider GBAO, have been disconnected since the security operation began late May 17. Further disruptions to the internet and telecommunications are likely over the short term, especially during periods of elevated protest activity and associated clashes between activists and security forces.

Increased security measures, including military patrols and checkpoints, will likely persist in Rushan, Khorog, and other areas in GBAO in the coming days. Further protests and associated violence are possible. Authorities will likely deploy extra security forces to potential trouble spots in Rushan and Khorog, including police stations, border crossings, government buildings, and central areas. Security restrictions, such as road closures, could be imposed with little-to-no warning. Localized transport disruptions are likely near any violence that may occur. Bystanders would face a significant physical threat near any further clashes.

Context

Authorities launched what they are referring to as an anti-terrorist operation in the wake of anti-government protests in Khorog and Rushan May 15-18. The protesters initially demanded the resignation of the regional governor and the mayor of Khorog for failing to investigate the November 2021 death of an activist while in police custody. Protests spread to other settlements in the region, most notably Rushan, May 16 after authorities announced security measures would be tightened in response to the unrest. Related protests have been dispersed with tear gas and rubber bullets.

Given that the government maintains that protesters are members of armed criminal groups, the ongoing crackdown will likely continue under the guise of an anti-terrorism operation.

Advice

Exercise heightened vigilance and maintain a low public profile if operating in GBAO. Heed the instructions of local security forces; carry relevant identification documents, and remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Leave the area immediately at the first sign of a confrontation. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Avoid all demonstrations.