East China Sea: Tropical Depression Aere tracking northwestward in the East China Seas as of late July 3 /update 1

Event

Tropical Depression Aere is tracking northwestward in the East China Sea as of late July 3, having made landfall over northern Okinawa Island as a tropical storm late July 2. As of 21:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 267 km (166 miles) north-northwest of Kadena Airbase on Okinawa Island.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will maintain its current strength as it turns to track north-northeastward and then northeastward in the East China Sea July 4-5. The storm is expected to lose some intensity before making landfall near Nagasaki on Kyushu Island late July 5. The system is forecast to track northeastward across Kyushu before making further landfalls over Shikoku and southern Honshu islands as it tracks generally east-northeastward July 6-7. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late July 3, the Japan Meteorological Agency has issued yellow heavy rainfall, landslide, flood, storm, high wave, and thunderstorm warnings across parts of Okinawa, Amami, and southern Kyushu regions. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days.

The Japan Meteorological Agency has warned of heavy rainfall, lightning, and strong wind gusts over Amami, Kyushu, and Shikoku regions July 4-5. Rainfall totals of up to 20 cm (8 inches) over southern Kyushu, 15 cm (6 inches) over Amami, and 10 cm (4 inches) over Shikoku regions are expected late July 3-July 4. Totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are expected over Amami, Kyushu, and Shikoku regions late July 4-July 5. Strong winds and high waves are also expected over Okinawa, Amami, and southern Kyushu regions July 3-5. Winds gusting up to 90 kph (56 mph) are expected in Kyushu Region July 4 and waves of up to 4 meters (13 feet) are possible in Amami Region July 4.

Around 107 flights were canceled across Okinawa July 2 due to the impacts of Aere, with a few further flights canceled July 3. Rainfall of over 10 cm (4 inches) and winds of up to 82 kph (51 mph) were recorded across parts of Okinawa as the storm passed over the island July 2-3.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Japan Meteorological Agency
Korea Meteorological Administration