Iraq: Further protests and heightened security are likely in Baghdad through early August /update 1

Event

Further disruptive protests by supporters of prominent Shi'a cleric Muqtada al-Sadr have occurred near the Green Zone in Baghdad, July 30. Officials have closed multiple road routes in the area. Emerging reports indicate that demonstrators have breached several barriers in the area. Security personnel have fired tear gas and water cannon in an attempt to disperse demonstrators. There have been no reports of casualties.

Iraqi authorities will likely maintain an increased security posture across Baghdad, and particularly in the Green Zone, through at least early August. In addition to demonstrations July 30, protesters stormed the parliament building late July 27. The al-Sadr protesters are opposed to the nomination of Mohammad Shia al-Sudani for the position of prime minister. Al-Sudani has been nominated by the Coordination Framework bloc, a group that is largely aligned with Iran. Unless al-Sudani's nomination is withdrawn, further demonstrations remain almost certain over the coming days.

Ground transport and business disruptions remain likely near any protest activity that may erupt. Security forces will likely deploy water cannons, tear gas, and other crowd control measures to disperse protesters. Clashes cannot be ruled, particularly if activists become overly disruptive or refuse to heed security forces' orders.

Context

Iraq's political impasse in the parliament will likely continue and the process of forming a government could become protracted. The parliament has yet to form a national majority government even though federal elections were held in October 2021. Despite the Sadrist Movement's winning the highest number of seats in the 329-member parliament, it failed to form a government because of fierce opposition from the Iranian-aligned parties. This failure prompted al-Sadr to call on his bloc to resign in June.

The mass mobilization on July 27 and protests July 30 are essentially al-Sadr's show of force. It was also an effort by al-Sadr to signal to the Coordination Framework and other political parties that he was sine quo non to the political process and that he had the means to escalate the situation to the point that nothing could be achieved politically. It remains to be seen if the protests will prompt other political parties to reengage the Sadrist Movement to rejoin the political process.

Advice

Avoid all protests as a standard precaution and to mitigate likely ground transport disruptions. Heed the instructions of local security personnel. If violence erupts nearby, immediately depart the area and seek shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.