Iraq: Further protests likely in Baghdad and major southern cities through late August

Event

Additional demonstrations are likely across Iraq, especially in Baghdad and major cities in the nation's southern governorates, through at least late August in reaction to the nomination of Mohammad Shia al-Sudani for the position of prime minister. Al-Sudani has been nominated by the Coordination Framework bloc, a coalition that is largely aligned with Iran. Major demonstrations, primarily by supporters of prominent Shi'a cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, have erupted in Baghdad and Basra in recent days in opposition to the move.

In the latest bouts of civil unrest, which began July 27, protesters have stormed the country's parliament in Baghdad and gathered near the parliament offices in Basra. The campaign of demonstrations will almost certainly continue unless al-Sudani's nomination is withdrawn. Counterprotests by supporters of the Coordination Framework cannot be ruled out over the coming days; any such actions that may occur could increase the potential for violence among activists from rival camps.

Authorities will almost certainly maintain tight security around prominent protest sites and key governmental facilities, particularly in and around Baghdad's Green Zone. Security personnel typically monitor demonstrations, erecting roadblocks and security cordons near sensitive locations. Localized transport and business disruptions are likely, especially during any large gatherings that may materialize. Clashes between protesters and police or rival activist groups are possible. Security forces could employ riot control measures, such as tear gas and water cannon, to disperse demonstrators.

Context

Iraq's political impasse in the parliament will likely continue and the process of forming a government could become protracted. The parliament has yet to form a national majority government even though federal elections were held in October 2021. Despite the Sadrist Movement's winning the highest number of seats in the 329-member parliament, it failed to form a government because of fierce opposition from the Iranian-aligned parties. This failure prompted al-Sadr to call on his bloc to resign in June.

The mass mobilization on July 27 and protests on July 30 are essentially al-Sadr's show of force. It was also an effort by al-Sadr to signal to the Coordination Framework and other political parties that he was sine quo non to the political process and that he had the means to escalate the situation to the point that nothing could be achieved politically. It remains to be seen if the protests will prompt other political parties to reengage the Sadrist Movement to rejoin the political process.

Advice

Avoid all protests as a precaution. Keep away from areas where security forces appear to be deploying. Exercise increased situational awareness as demonstrations may be ongoing. Heed the advice of authorities. Avoid loitering near security checkpoints and main entrances to hotels, restaurants, or government buildings. Seek updated information on security conditions and possible movement restrictions in Iraq before traveling. Do not attempt to bypass security checkpoints; even an accidental breach of a security cordon near a checkpoint may prompt Iraqi security forces to respond aggressively. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.