13 Jul 2022 | 03:39 PM UTC
Pakistan: Further adverse weather forecast across much of the country through at least July 17 /update 1
Severe weather forecast to continue across much of Pakistan through at least July 17. Weather-related disruptions ongoing in many regions.
Event
Further severe weather associated with the current monsoon season is forecast across much of Pakistan through at least July 17. Many parts of the country have experienced severe flooding in recent days due to heavy monsoon rains and further downpours are likely to exacerbate the situation in areas where river levels are already high and the ground is saturated, as well as hampering ongoing recovery efforts.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has warned of vigorous monsoon activity across much of Pakistan in the coming days, with torrential rainfall likely in parts of Sindh, Balochistan, and South Punjab provinces. Monsoon currents will continue to penetrate northern and central parts of the country and another strong low pressure area is expected to approach Sindh Province from July 14. Widespread heavy rainfall, strong winds, and thunderstorms are expected across much of Balochistan and Sindh provinces July 14-17. More intermittent heavy rainfall, strong winds, and thunderstorms are likely in parts of Islamabad Capital Territory, Azad Jammu and Kashmir Autonomous Territory, and Kyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab provinces July 13-15. The PMD has warned of possible urban flooding in many major cities and flash flooding in other parts of the country over the coming days. Landslides are also possible in some mountainous areas.
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has reported 161 fatalities and 171 injuries associated with the monsoon season since it began June 14. Over 1,000 homes and several roads and bridges have been damaged. Balochistan has been amongst the worst-affected regions. Around ten dams in northern parts of the province have burst due to the rainfall, triggering severe flooding downstream. The dam failures and weather conditions have reportedly killed at least 65 people and the provincial government has imposed a law prohibiting people from spending time near or swimming in rivers, dams, and other water bodies. A state of emergency was declared in Quetta District July 5 and the provincial government declared an alert in hospitals canceling holidays for healthcare staff during the Eid holiday due to the ongoing adverse weather situation. Severe flooding has also been reported in many parts of Sindh Province in recent days, including in the city of Karachi. Heavy rainfall that hit Karachi July 10-11 caused at least 14 fatalities, and widespread traffic disruptions, and left many without power, especially in the city's South District.
Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall.
Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.
Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.
Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports Across Pakistan. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations or close beach fronts along the Arabian Sea coast if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.
Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
