Philippine Sea: Tropical Storm Aere tracking northward in the Philippine Sea late July 1 /update 1

Event

Tropical Storm Aere was tracking northward in the Philippine Sea as of late July 1. As of 21:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 589 km (366 miles) southeast of Kadena Airbase on Okinawa Island.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen slightly as it continues to track generally north-northwestward across the Philippine Sea July 2, and will pass over Okinawa and the Amami Islands, Japan, late July 2-early July 3. On the present forecast track, the center of circulation is likely to pass just north of Okinawa Island and south of Yoron in the Amami Islands. The storm system is then forecast to maintain tropical storm strength as it tracks north-northwestward and then north-northeastward in the East China Sea July 3-4. The storm is forecast to weaken as it takes a turn to track northeastward July 5, making landfall or a close approach over Nakadori and Kyushu islands in southwestern Japan. The storm will weaken further to a tropical depression as it tracks over or close to the west coast of Japan July 6. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

The Japan Meteorological Agency has warned that strong winds and rough seas will start to impact Okinawa and Amami regions from mid-July 2. Rainfall totals of 12 cm (5 inches) are forecast across Okinawa and Amami July 2 and 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) over southern Kyushu into July 3. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Japan Meteorological Agency
Korea Meteorological Administration