South Africa: Economic- and political-related protests likely to persist nationwide through at least the end of July /update 1

Event

Protests in response to several recurring national issues are likely to continue nationwide through at least the end of July. Potential triggers for demonstrations include increased fuel costs, persistent load shedding, and political competition between rival factions within the African National Congress (ANC), including demands from various quarters that President Cyril Ramaphosa resign over the so-called Phala Phala controversy. Protests are likely to be led by political parties, factions within the ANC, civil society groups, transport operators, including taxi drivers, or local communities. Likely impacted locations include major national highways, including the economically critical N3 highway, city centers, informal settlements, government buildings, and ground transportation hubs.

Officials will likely deploy to monitor all related events. Police will likely seek to minimize the potential for violence; however, clashes are possible if protests are persistent, widespread, and disruptive or if demonstrators ignore police orders to disperse. Protesters could block roads with burning debris or vehicles, causing road travel delays and increased congestion. Any citywide or nationwide action could result in increased employee absenteeism due to blocked roads or the unavailability of public transport services. Business disruptions may also occur in areas experiencing protests.

Context

The fuel price in South Africa has increased approximately 40 percent over the past year. Various political parties, civil society groups, and transport organizations have called on the government to intervene by reducing levies and taxes built into the price. There have also been calls on social media for a national shutdown in response to this issue. The latest call was made by the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) opposition political party in mid-July. No nationwide events have occurred, and none are scheduled as of July 17.

Related disruptive protests have occurred regularly through July. Some notable events are included below:

• On July 15, a faction within the ANC marched to the ANC headquarters in Johannesburg (Gauteng Province), Luthuli House, and demanded Cyril Ramaphosa resign within 48 hours due to his alleged failure to deal with several national issues.

• On July 14, taxi drivers blocked roads in Gqeberha (Eastern Cape Province) over the high fuel price.

• On July 7, truck drivers blocked roads in Empangeni (KwaZulu-Natal Province) in protests over fuel prices.

• On July 6, taxi drivers blocked roads in and around Mbombela (Mpumalanga Province) in a protest against high fuel prices, disrupting road travel to Mozambique.

In addition, severe load shedding has impacted the country recently. The state power utility, Eskom, has blamed striking workers for the crisis and indicated that its maintenance schedule has been impacted. As of July 17, load shedding stages had been reduced, and the strike ended; load shedding is still scheduled to continue through the week of July 18 and will likely persist through at least early August.

Contests between rival factions within the ruling ANC during the party's ongoing provincial elective conferences will likely translate into further localized protests and unrest in the coming weeks. The provincial conferences precede the ANC elective conference in December when new leaders will be selected. It is likely that members of the so-called Radical Economic Transformation (RET) faction, which is aligned with former President Jacob Zuma, will take advantage of the ongoing national issues to pressure Ramaphosa to resign or, through protests, reduce his popular support ahead of the December conference. Zuma also faces ongoing legal action, which continues to serve as a potential trigger for unrest. His next court appearance is scheduled for August. A contempt court ruling in June 2021 against Zuma and his eventual imprisonment sparked severe civil unrest in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng provinces in July 2021, leaving over 300 people dead.

Advice

Liaise with trusted contacts for further updates, particularly if operating in areas that have recently experienced severe protest action. Monitor local media for updates on demonstration locations. Check the status of road routes before departing or shipping freight. Avoid all protests and do not drive through roadblocks. Wait for the police to clear all blockages. Heed the instructions of security officials.