South China Sea: Typhoon Chaba tracking northwestward in the South China Sea early July 2 /update 3

Event

Typhoon Chaba is tracking northwestward over the South China Sea as of early July 2. As of 05:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 328 km (204 miles) southwest of Hong Kong.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will make landfall over southern Guangdong Province, China the afternoon of July 2 before weakening into a tropical storm as it tracks northwest across far southern Guangdong Province and into southeastern Guangxi Province through early July 3. Chaba is forecast to weaken further as it turns to track north across eastern Guangxi Province July 3, becoming a tropical depression and then dissipating over northeastern Guangxi early July 4. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early July 2, Chinese authorities have issued an orange (second-highest level on a four-tier scale) typhoon warning. The storm is forecast to make landfall between Yangjiang to Leizhou cities in Guangdong Province the afternoon of July 2 and will be carrying winds of more than 108 kph (67 mph). Strong winds are also likely across Hainan Island, the coast of Guangdong Province, and the southeast coast of Guangxi Province. Heavy rains are likely over most of Guangdong, southeastern Guangxi, Hainan Island, and southwestern Fujian. The heaviest downpours are likely over Hainan Island, southeastern Guangdong, and southern Guangxi provinces, with rainfall totals of 25-30 cm (10-12 inches) possible in these areas. Officials in Hong Kong have issued a No. 8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal, with winds speeds of over 63 kph (39 mph) expected over the territory.

Vietnamese authorities have warned of strong winds and large waves along much of the east coast July 2. Large waves together with high tides could result in flooding in low-lying areas from Quang Ninh to Ninh Binh provinces. Heavy rainfall is forecast in northeastern and northern regions through July 4. Rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are likely in most of the affected area, with higher rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) in the northeastern region. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days.

Authorities in Hainan Province have closed the Haikou Xiuying, Railway South, and Xinhai ports through at least July 3. China's National Defense General Office has issued a level 4 emergency response (highest level on a four-tier scale) and sent two working groups to southern Guangdong Province to assist and guide typhoon prevention work.

The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge shuttle bus service, as well as ferry services at Hong Kong Port and from Hengqin Wharf to Shenzhen Shekou and Dongao Island, remain suspended until further notice. Hengqin Port is also closed.

China Southern Airlines canceled 22 flights at Haikou Meilan International Airport (HAK) July 1 and is likely to cancel at least 21 inbound flights at the airport July 2.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
China Meteorological Administration
Vietnam National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting