Ukraine: Russian forces continue military operations in Donetsk Region as of July 9 /update 155

Event

Russian forces continued focusing their military operations in Donetsk Region as of July 9, engaging in limited offensive maneuvers amid an operational pause announced July 7. Moscow's troops reportedly launched an attack on Bohorodychne, located north of Slovyansk, and conducted assaults toward Siversk from the Lysychansk area in recent days; however, the assault on Bohorodychne was unsuccessful, and no territorial gains were confirmed in connection with the attacks toward Siversk. Additionally, Russian troops and Ukrainian defenders have clashed in Vesela Dolyna, with Russian forces likely staging the attack in preparation for an eventual northwestward assault toward Bakhmut. Russian shelling and other artillery fire in the Donetsk Region has recently targeted Slovyansk, Druzhkivka, the Siversk area, the Bakhmut area, and the Avdiivka area.

While Russian forces maintain primarily defensive positions along the front north of Kharkiv, they have nonetheless carried out limited attacks to stifle Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in the region. The Ukrainian General Staff has accordingly reported that Russian troops carried out two attacks in the Dementiivka area, with the likely objective of disrupting the Ukrainian ground line of communication and Kyiv's northward-aiming attacks from Prudyanka. Russia has also continued to bombard Kharkiv city and surrounding areas with shelling and missile strikes, wounding at least three civilians July 9.

In the south of the country, Moscow is focused on recapturing areas lost to Ukrainian forces and solidifying defensive positions in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. Russian forces continue to strike Ukrainian positions using aircraft, missiles, and artillery. For their part, Kyiv's forces have continued to launch attacks on Russian positions in the Kherson Region, with Ukrainian officials intimating that their forces may soon attempt to launch a significant counteroffensive to retake Russian-occupied territory in the country's south. A large explosion was reported near Kherson International Airport (KHE) in Chornobaivka early July 9; Ukrainian officials claim that the apparent attack struck an area where Russian forces have positioned military equipment.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00 until at least July 17. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia regions 23:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russian forces' recent capture of the Luhansk Region marks the achievement of a significant objective for the Kremlin. Moscow's attention will now probably turn to the impending battles for Siversk, Bakhmut, and Slovyansk. With the bulk of Russia's men and equipment having been deployed in the Luhansk Region, further major assaults against settlements bordering that region are likely. Ukrainian forces are likely seeking to bolster defensive positions along the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway and between Bakhmut and Svitlodarsk; however, it remains possible that Ukrainian forces will fall back beyond the highway to more established defensive positions in Bakhmut and Siversk.

Regardless of Russia's next major objective, an increase in Russian offensive operations is highly likely throughout the combat zone. The territorial situation in much of the country outside the Luhansk Region has remained fairly static for several days. Russian operations north of Kharkiv continue, with the aim of securing the border region and supply lines. Russian artillery and rocket fire into the Sumy Region from Russia's Kursk Oblast has also continued, with the likely aim of pinning a number of Ukrainian forces in the region.

Ukraine has increasingly struck targets deep behind Russian lines with advanced Western weaponry in an attempt to attrite and degrade Russian forces, with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance. However, Kyiv's forces continue to come under intense pressure in the Donbas as Russia conducts intense artillery and aerial bombardments ahead of daily ground assaults on Ukrainian defensive positions.

Ukrainian intelligence released a statement July 1 indicating that, in its estimation, a direct military offensive from Belarus remains unlikely despite the deployment of seven battalions of the Belarusian Armed Forces near the border with Ukraine. However, Minsk has falsely accused Kyiv of launching missiles against military facilities within Belarus; Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko alleges that Ukraine is provoking his country and has threatened to "respond instantly" to any attacks.

As the conflict remains largely concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service