Arabian Peninsula: Adverse weather forecast across parts of the Arabian Peninsula through at least Aug. 21

Event

Severe weather, including thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, strong winds, dust storms, and rough seas, is forecast across parts of eastern, western, and southern Saudi Arabia and much of Yemen through at least Aug. 21.

As of Aug. 16, Saudi Arabia's National Center for Meteorology has issued the following weather warnings across the kingdom:

• Orange heavy rain and thunderstorm warnings (second-highest level on a three-tier scale): Parts of southern and central Aseer Province and all of Jazan Province, with the exception of the Farasan Islands.

• Yellow heavy rain and thunderstorm warnings: Across all of Al Bahah, Medina, and Najran provinces, as well as parts of eastern, northern, and western Aseer, southern and central Eastern, the Farasan Islands in Jazan, central and western Mecca, and southwestern, northern, central, and eastern Tabuk provinces.

• Yellow dust storm warnings: Parts of eastern Al Jowf, eastern Al Qassim, northern Eastern, eastern Hail. eastern Mecca, central and southern Northern Borders, and northeastern Riyadh provinces.

Yemen's National Meteorological Center has issued a warning bulletin due to heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, rough seas, and reduced visibility due to thick fog across parts of the country Aug. 16-17. Heavy downpours could cause flooding, landslides, and hazardous road conditions. Rainfall of varying intensity accompanied by thunderstorms is forecast across western mountainous regions from Sa'adah Governorate in the north to Lahij Governorate in the south, extending to the interior hills of the central and eastern governorates of Abyan, Al Bayda, Al Jawf, Hadramawt, Ma'rib, and Shabwah. Heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and possible hail are forecast across the west coast and adjacent highlands. Light to medium rainfall and moderate winds are forecast along the eastern and southern coasts. Heavy rainfall and moderate winds that could generate dust storms are expected in desert areas of Al Jawf, Al Mahrah, Hadramawt, Ma'rib, and Shabwah governorates. Strong winds and rough seas are expected off the Socotra Archipelago.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall.

Authorities may issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant winds, flooding, and/or landslides impact utility networks.

Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management in some urban areas, even minor rainfall accumulations could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is possible in streams and wadis (dry riverbeds). Significant rainfall may be preceded by moderate winds and dust storms, though some areas - particularly desert areas - may experience high levels of dust without rain.

Transport
The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout the affected area. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles.

Hazardous weather conditions might cause flight delays and cancellations at airports in affected regions. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.

Advice

Confirm flights. Seek updated information on weather and road conditions before driving through areas where severe weather is forecast. Plan accordingly for potential freight delivery delays if routing shipments by truck through the affected area. Do not attempt to drive through flooded areas. Review contingency plans. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

National Center for Meteorology - Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Yemen National Center for Meteorology