Iraq: Authorities likely to maintain a heightened security posture amid heightened tensions through mid-September /update 2

Event

Authorities will likely maintain a heightened security posture across major Iraqi cities through at least mid-September. While clashes have ceased and protests have abated, the possibility of further clashes among supporters of prominent cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, the Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs), and Iraqi security forces remains. Al-Sadr has called on his supporters to withdraw from the International Zone and has apologized for the violence on Aug. 29-30, which left 30 people dead and over 550 others wounded. Authorities have also lifted the nationwide curfew, which they imposed from 19:00 on Aug. 29.

The Iranian government has reopened all air and land borders with Iraq. Meanwhile, Iraqi President Barham Salih has called for early legislative elections to end the political stalemate that has afflicted the country since October 2021. Salih believes that early elections will guarantee political and social stability and respond to the aspirations of all Iraqis. Salih's recommendation is in line with the wishes of al-Sadr and his supporters, who have been demanding new elections since late July. Additionally, caretaker Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi has announced that he will vacate his position if the political crisis continues in the country.

The latest demonstrations appear to have been prompted by al-Sadr's announcement on Aug. 29 that he would permanently withdraw from politics and that he would close all Sadrist offices in the country. Al-Sadr's supporters had been organizing sit-ins in the country's parliament since late July, demanding the dissolution of parliament and new elections.

Ground transport and business disruptions remain likely near any protest activity that may erupt. Security forces will likely deploy water cannons, tear gas, and other crowd control measures to disperse protesters. Clashes cannot be ruled, particularly if activists become overly disruptive or refuse to heed security forces' orders.

Context

The initial trigger for the mass mobilization, which began July 27, was the nomination of Mohammad Shia al-Sudani for the position of prime minister. Al-Sudani had been nominated by the Coordination Framework Coalition (CFA), a group that is largely aligned with Iran.

The parliament has yet to form a national majority government even though federal elections were held in October 2021. Despite the Sadrist Movement's winning the highest number of seats in the 329-member parliament, it failed to form a government because of fierce opposition from the Iranian-aligned parties. This failure prompted al-Sadr to call on his bloc to resign in June.

Advice

Avoid all protests as a precaution. Keep away from areas where security forces appear to be deploying. Exercise increased situational awareness as demonstrations may be ongoing. Heed the advice of authorities. Avoid loitering near security checkpoints and main entrances to hotels, restaurants, or government buildings. Seek updated information on security conditions and possible movement restrictions in Iraq before traveling. Do not attempt to bypass security checkpoints; even an accidental breach of a security cordon near a checkpoint may prompt Iraqi security forces to respond aggressively. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.