Iraq: Authorities likely to maintain increased security in Baghdad through at least mid-September /update 4

Event

Iraqi authorities will likely maintain a heightened security posture throughout Baghdad, particularly in the Green Zone, through at least mid-September despite lifting the city-wide curfew Aug. 30. At least 30 people have died and over 570 others injured in violent clashes between militias loyal to prominent Shi'a cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, the Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs), and Iraqi security forces. The clashes broke out Aug. 29 after supporters of al-Sadr stormed the Presidential Palace in the Green Zone. Reports indicate that at least four missiles targeting the Green Zone caused damage to a residential structure early Aug. 30. Security forces have closed several roads leading to Baghdad to prevent al-Sadr's supporters in southern governorates from traveling to the capital.

The latest demonstrations appear to have been prompted by al-Sadr's Aug. 29 announcement that he would permanently withdraw from politics and close all Sadrist offices in the country. Al-Sadr's supporters have been organizing sit-ins in the country's parliament since late July, demanding the dissolution of parliament and new elections.

The security situation in Baghdad will likely remain extremely tense and volatile due to the potential for additional protests, clashes, and projectile fire. Protesters stormed the parliament building July 27 and the Presidential Palace Aug. 29; further similar actions targeting government institutions remain possible. Counterprotests by supporters of political parties opposed to al-Sadr also remain likely. Given the heightened tensions and political volatility of the situation, businesses and government offices will probably remain closed over the coming days.

Significant transport and business disruptions remain likely near protest activity. Security forces will likely deploy water cannons, tear gas, and other crowd-control measures to disperse protesters. Clashes cannot be ruled out, particularly if activists become overly disruptive or refuse to heed security forces' orders.

Context

The initial trigger for the mass mobilizations, which began July 27, was the nomination of Mohammad Shia al-Sudani for the position of prime minister. Al-Sudani had been nominated by the Coordination Framework Coalition (CFA), a group primarily aligned with Iran.

Iraq's political impasse in the parliament will likely continue, impeding the formation of a government. The parliament has yet to create a national majority government even though federal elections were held in October 2021. Despite the Sadrist Movement's winning the highest number of seats in the 329-member parliament, it failed to form a government because of fierce opposition from the Iranian-aligned parties. This failure prompted al-Sadr to call on his bloc to resign in June.

Advice

Exercise heightened personal vigilance until the situation in Baghdad stabilizes; keep away from areas affected by recent protests and clashes. Refrain from nonessential travel and avoid areas where police or other security forces appear to be deploying.