Philippine Sea: Tropical Depression 10 forms and is tracking westward in the Philippine Sea early Aug. 22

Event

Tropical Depression 10 (known in the Philippines as Florita) formed and is tracking westward in the Philippine Sea as of early Aug. 22. As of 05:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 611 km (380 miles) east-northeast of Subic Bay, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a tropical storm in the coming hours as it turns to track northwestward. The storm is forecast to continue strengthening, making a close approach to the northern Cagayan Valley Region, Philippines, the afternoon of Aug. 23 before entering the South China Sea early Aug. 24. The system is likely to continue strengthening as it tracks northwestward across the South China Sea, making landfall as a tropical storm over central Guangdong Province, China, the afternoon of Aug. 25. After landfall, the storm is likely to weaken rapidly and dissipate over northern Guangxi Province early Aug. 27. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has warned of light to moderate rain over Cagayan, Isabela, Batanes, and Aurora provinces through late Aug. 22. Heavy to intense rainfall is forecast over Cordillera Administrative Region and Ilocos Region as well as Cagayan, Isabela, and Batanes Provinces late Aug. 22 through the evening of Aug. 23. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) 1 is in place over northern and central Luzon. Moderate to rough seas of 1.2-3.1 meters (4-10 feet) are likely over the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the affected region and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
China Meteorological Administration
Vietnam National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF)