Equatorial Guinea: Political gatherings likely ahead of general elections Nov. 20

Event

Political-related gatherings are likely ahead of the Presidential, Chamber of Deputies, Senate, and Municipal elections, Nov. 20. The electoral campaign will officially run Nov. 3-18. Likely gathering locations include Malabo on Bioko Island and Bata on the mainland.

A heightened security presence is likely in the vicinity of all election-related events and near polling stations on election day. Opposition political gatherings are likely to be affected by clashes with security forces. Disruptions to transport, businesses, and other services are possible on and around the polling day. Officials could close land borders and restrict air travel on Nov. 20.

Context

Authorities announced Sept. 20 that elections would be brought forward to Nov. 20. The decree cited financial reasons due to the negative global economic context (war in Ukraine, fallouts of COVID-19 crisis) and related savings by combining all elections.

The ruling PDGE party (Partido Democrático de Guinea Ecuatorial) is highly likely to remain in power and obtain a vast majority of deputies and senators. It remains to be seen whether Incumbent President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo will attempt to run for another term or let his son Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue, current Vice-President, succeed him.

Mbasogo rose to power in a 1979 coup and has now been ruling the country for 43 years. He was elected in 1982 and 1989, running as the sole candidate, for seven-year terms before multi-party rule was introduced. Despite this, he was reelected in 1996, 2002, 2009, and 2016 with more than 90 percent of the vote each time. The elections were condemned as fraudulent by the opposition and international observers.

Advice

Monitor local political developments. Avoid all political gatherings. Obey all instructions issued by the local authorities. If violence erupts, immediately depart the affected area. Reconfirm transport arrangements immediately before and during the election.