Iraq: Authorities likely to maintain increased security in Baghdad through at least end-September /update 5

Event

Iraqi authorities will likely maintain a heightened security posture throughout Baghdad, particularly in the International (Green Zone), through at least end-September despite lifting the city-wide curfew Aug. 30. Violence broke out Aug. 29 following al-Sadr's announcement that he would permanently withdraw from politics and close all Sadrist offices in the country. Al-Sadr's supporters stormed the Presidential Palace and clashed with Popular Mobilization Unit (PMU) militias and Iraqi security forces, resulting in at least 30 fatalities and over 570 wounded. Al-Sadr's supporters had organized sit-ins in the country's parliament since late July to demand the dissolution of parliament and new elections.

The security situation in Baghdad will probably remain extremely tense and volatile due to the potential for further protests and violence. Actions may continue to target government institutions. Counterprotests by supporters of political parties opposed to al-Sadr remain possible. Given the heightened tensions and political volatility, businesses and government offices will probably remain closed in the coming days. Significant transport and business disruptions are likely near demonstrations. Security forces will probably deploy water cannons, tear gas, and other crowd-control measures to disperse protesters.

Context

The initial trigger for the mass mobilizations, which began July 27, was the nomination of Mohammad Shia al-Sudani for the position of prime minister by the Coordination Framework Coalition (CFA), a group primarily aligned with Iran.

Iraq's political impasse in the parliament will likely continue, impeding the formation of a government. The parliament has yet to create a national majority government even though federal elections occurred in October 2021. Despite the Sadrist Movement's winning the highest number of seats in the 329-member parliament, it failed to form a government because of fierce opposition from the Iranian-aligned parties. This failure prompted al-Sadr to call on his bloc to resign in June.

Advice

Exercise heightened personal vigilance until the situation in Baghdad stabilizes; keep away from areas affected by recent protests and clashes. Refrain from nonessential travel and avoid areas where police or other security forces appear to be deploying.