Mexico: Tropical Storm Lester tracking northwest off Oaxaca State late Sept. 16 /update 1

Event

Tropical Storm Lester is tracking northwest over the North Pacific Ocean off Oaxaca State late Sept. 16. As of 19:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 345 km (215 miles) southeast of Acapulco, Guerrero State.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will continue tracking northwestward while strengthening further, making landfall as a tropical storm over south central Guerrero State the afternoon of Sept. 17. After landfall, the storm is likely to weaken rapidly and dissipate over the far western part of the state early Sept. 18. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours.

As of late Sept. 16, authorities have issued a tropical storm warning for Puerto Escondido to Zihuatanejo and a tropical storm watch for west of Zihuatanejo to Lazaro Cardenas. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Forecast models indicate 20-30 cm (8-12 inches) of rainfall over coastal portions of upper Guerrero and Michoacan states and 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) of rainfall across coastal portions of Oaxaca, lower Guerrero, Colima, and Jalisco states; flash and urban flooding, as well as mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast, are possible. Swells are likely to affect portions of southern Mexico's coast through Sept. 18; life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
National Weather Service
Mexican Meteorological Service (Spanish)