18 Oct 2022 | 03:09 PM UTC
Afghanistan: Adverse weather forecast across multiple regions through at least Oct. 19
Severe weather forecast across parts of Afghanistan through at least Oct. 19. Flooding and disruptions possible.
Event
Severe weather conditions are forecast across multiple regions of Afghanistan through at least Oct. 19. Heavy precipitation is forecast in eastern regions and strong winds are possible across parts of central, northern, southern, and western Afghanistan. As of Oct. 18, the Afghanistan Meteorological Department has issued a weather warning for heavy rainfall, snowfall, flash floods, and strong wind gusts for much of Badakhshan, Takhar, eastern and central Kunduz, eastern and central Baghlan, Panjshir, much of Nuristan, and eastern Kunar provinces. Rainfall totals of 1-5 cm (0.8-2 inches) are forecast across the affected area and snowfall is possible over higher ground. The strongest precipitation is forecast in parts of western Badakhshan, eastern Takhar, and eastern Baghlan provinces. The department has also warned of strong winds and possible dust storms over parts of Balkh, Herat, Ghor, Farah, Nimroz, Helmand, and Ghazni provinces. Wind speeds of 20-70 kph (12-43 mph) are possible in the affected areas. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.
Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall. Power outages could occur throughout the affected area.
Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management, even minor rainfall accumulations could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is possible in streams and dry riverbeds.
Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. There is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall.
Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.
The disruptive weather may cause some delays and cancellations at airports in affected areas. Flooding, landslides, or snow could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.
Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
