Afghanistan, Pakistan: Protests near border crossings likely to persist through at least mid-November /update 5

Activists in Pakistan will likely continue their series of sporadic protest campaigns near various border crossings along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border through at least mid-November. The purpose of the demonstrations is to denounce several Pakistani government regulations related to cross-border activities. In recent days, customs clearing agents have initiated a related protest by halting the clearance of goods at the Torkham border crossing, causing shipping delays. Additionally, protesters continue to hold intermittent demonstrations of various types denouncing Pakistani government rules mandating passports and visas for cross-border travel.

In recent weeks, such rallies have occurred in the Duki, Chaman, Harnai, and Zhob districts of Balochistan Province, as well as near the Torkham and Angoor Ada border crossings in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. The protests have exacerbated transport and business disruptions at land crossings, which frequently face temporary closures due to clashes between border forces. For instance, local media reported the death of at least one Afghan security officer and damage to civilian homes in Afghanistan's Zazai Maidan District due to cross-border clashes on Sept. 7, which disrupted transit and trade.

Authorities will almost certainly monitor demonstrations while maintaining tight security at border checkpoints. Popular protest sites include large markets, major intersections, monuments, interprovincial highways, and border checkpoints. Thousands of people have attended large demonstrations in the past, staging multiday sit-ins and blockades as well as localized shutdown strikes. Officials may implement enhanced restrictions, including temporary curbs on public movement and telecommunications, to prevent or control well-attended protests. Clashes between activists and police are possible, especially if police forcibly disperse crowds. Associated transport and business disruptions are likely to persist, including supply chain and shipping issues.

Additional security incidents, including cross-border firings, are possible. The border regions of Kandahar, Khost, Kunar, Nangarhar, Paktika, and Zabul provinces in Afghanistan, as well as Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces in Pakistan, remain the most vulnerable to such clashes. Disruptive incidents typically result in temporary suspensions of cross-border movement for up to a week for bilateral talks, though prolonged closures are possible if related protests occur.