Ethiopia: Insecurity to persist in northern regions through at least early November despite withdrawal by Tigrayan forces /update 7

Event

Insecurity will almost certainly persist in the conflict-impacted northern regions through at least early November despite the recent withdrawal by forces of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). On Oct. 3, TPLF leaders announced that their troops had pulled out from several territories in Amhara Region. While Tigrayan leaders assert that their forces remain intact and combat-capable, the move reportedly follows a number of TPLF military setbacks, including losing control of areas in Amhara, such as the town of Kobo.

Armed conflict will likely continue between federal forces and the TPLF in the coming weeks if a ceasefire is not called, with fighting likely in Tigray, Afar, and Amhara regions. A heightened military presence is likely in Tigray, Afar, and Amhara regions, along with enhanced security measures in cities and towns in the regions, including curfews, roadblocks, movement restrictions, and telecommunications disruptions. Acts of civil unrest or large celebratory gatherings are possible in response to any battlefield successes or setbacks.

Curfews
In response to the TPLF advance and renewed fighting, authorities in Amhara have reportedly maintained curfew measures in select areas.

• Weldiya: A nightly 19:00-06:00 curfew is in place until further notice for local residents, and vehicles, from 18:00.

• Dessie: Movement of people and services in restaurants, nightclubs, bars, and grocery shops are prohibited after 19:00.

• Debre Birhan: Displaced persons are restricted from entering or leaving their shelters after 18:00, vehicle movements are prohibited, and bars and restaurants should close from 20:00.

• Kombolcha: People movement, taxi services, restaurants, bars, groceries, and cafes are authorized until 23:00. Hoteliers, bed and breakfast facilities, and residential and apartment rentals are required to provide copies of ID cards of their tenants to security forces. Gatherings in entertainment facilities are also prohibited. Moving around the city with weapons is prohibited.

• Sekota: Pedestrian movement is restricted 19:00-06:00 and from 18:00 for vehicles. Moving around the city with weapons is prohibited. Displaced persons are not allowed to move outside the shelter camps.

• Lalibela: Entering or leaving the city is prohibited from 19:00-06:00. No vehicle is allowed to move during that time. Moving around the city with unauthorized weapons is prohibited.

Context

The recent fighting comes after federal forces, and the TPLF agreed to a cessation of hostilities in late March. The federal government and TPLF rebels blame each other for the resumption of conflict. Peace efforts have been delayed due to disagreements over the agenda of talks, mediators, and TPLF's request to restore basic services, such as electricity, banking, telephone, air, and land transport in the Tigray Region, before the beginning of negotiations.

Regardless of the TPLF's withdrawal from the Amhara Region, federal government airstrikes in Tigray will likely persist. In a recent incident, government and neighboring Eritrean forces airstrike reportedly killed five people in Adi Daero, northwestern Tigray, Sept. 27.

Rallies in response to the TPLF's withdrawal from Amhara are likely, particularly in Addis Ababa's Meskel Square. Anti-government demonstrations may also occur in federal government-controlled areas. There is a heightened threat of violence at these events. All gatherings will likely result in localized ground travel disruptions.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to Amhara, Afar, and Tigray regions until the situation stabilizes. Avoid all military installations, administrative buildings, and strategic infrastructure that may be targeted in attacks, including power stations and media, communications, and transport facilities. Persons in Amhara, Afar, and Tigray regions should liaise with trusted contacts.

Avoid all demonstrations, crowds, and concentrations of security personnel. Immediately depart the area if violence occurs or crowds form; take shelter in a secure building. Confirm routes, road access conditions, and destination security before conducting ground movements and when planning freight shipments. If travel is unavoidable, do so in convoy and allow additional time to reach destinations due to potential roadblocks. Obtain satellite phones for emergency use; SMS messages are usually more reliable than calls when cellular networks are restricted. Register and maintain contact with diplomatic missions.