Iraq: Authorities likely to heighten security measures in Baghdad as Parliament scheduled to convene and attempt to elect new president Oct. 13

Event

Iraqi authorities will almost certainly heighten security measures in Baghdad, particularly in the International Zone (Green Zone), as the country's Parliament convenes to attempt to elect a new president Oct. 13. Despite Speaker of the Parliament Mohammed al-Halbussi's announcement that the Parliament will meet, it was not immediately clear if there would be sufficient votes to elect a new president; notably, the Parliament has failed in three similar attempts between Feb. 7 and March 30.

Protesters could gather amid the legislative session and attempt to target government institutions in instances of rioting as the security situation in Baghdad has already been tense and volatile ahead of the vote. Protesters have stormed the Parliament multiple times this year, including most recently in late August when prominent Shi'a cleric Muqtada al-Sadr announced his withdrawal from politics. Counterprotests by supporters of political parties opposed to al-Sadr and his followers are also possible. Given the heightened tensions and political volatility, businesses and government offices could work limited hours Oct. 13. Significant transport and business disruptions are likely near any demonstrations that materialize. Security forces will probably deploy water cannons, tear gas, and other crowd-control measures to disperse any protesters. Clashes between protesters and security forces, as well as between protesters and counterprotesters, cannot be ruled out.

Context

The presidency in Iraqi politics is mainly a symbolic position. However, the president's role is significant as he invites the nominee of the largest parliamentary coalition to form a government. Under Iraq's power-sharing system, the president of the republic must be a Kurd. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) has held the post of the presidency since 2003, while the other major Kurdish political party, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), has controlled the autonomous Kurdistan Region's foreign affairs. However, this arrangement between the PUK and KDP seems to have unraveled as the latter claims to have won the largest number of Kurdish votes in the October 2021 elections. There are currently two presidential candidates - the incumbent President Barham Saleh of the PUK and Kurdistan's Interior Minister Rebar Ahmad of the KDP.

Meanwhile, Iraq's Parliament has been in a stalemate since the October 2021 elections. The legislative body has failed to form a government due to political infighting and a lack of consensus regarding a choice for prime minister. Despite the Sadrist Movement winning the highest number of seats in the 329-member Parliament, it failed to form a government because of fierce opposition from Iran-aligned parties. This failure prompted al-Sadr to call on his bloc to resign in June.

Advice

Avoid any political rallies and demonstrations. Exercise heightened personal vigilance until the situation in Baghdad stabilizes; keep away from areas affected by recent protests and clashes. Refrain from nonessential travel and avoid areas where police or other security forces appear to be deploying Oct. 13. Maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.