North Pacific Ocean: TS Julia tracking westward across North Pacific Ocean late Oct. 9 following landfall near Laguna De Perlas, Nicaragua early Oct. 9 /update 5

Event

Tropical Storm Julia is tracking westward across the North Pacific Ocean late Oct. 9 following landfall near Laguna De Perlas, Nicaragua, earlier in the day. As of 22:00 CDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 155 km (95 miles) southeast of San Salvador, El Salvador.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken further as it tracks west-northwestward over the North Pacific Ocean just off the southern coast of El Salvador before dissipating southeast of Guatemala early Oct. 10. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Oct. 9, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Tropical Storm Warning: the Pacific coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Sandino northward to the Honduras border, the Pacific coast of Honduras, and the coast of El Salvador

• Tropical Storm Watch: the Pacific coast of Guatemala

Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.

Forecast models predict rainfall accumulations of 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches) over Nicaragua and El Salvador, 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) over southern Guatemala, and 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) over Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico. Heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and landslides across Central America through Oct. 10.

Colombian authorities have imposed a curfew over San Andres through 06:00 Oct. 11 to limit the number of people outside. Authorities have resumed operations at Gustavo Rojas Pinilla International Airport (ADZ) in San Andres and El Embrujo Airport (PVA) in Providencia. Reports indicate that in San Andres, two people were injured and 101 houses were damaged.

Authorities in Nicaragua have confirmed that more than 1300 families have been evacuated from the eastern coastal areas of the country. More than 800 houses have been flooded. Honduran authorities have confirmed one fatality along the Bijao River in Choloma, Cortes Department in northern Honduras. Authorities have ordered residents in high-risk areas to evacuate.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Colombia Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM)
El Salvador National Service for Territorial Studies
Guatemala National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH)
Honduras Center for Atmospheric, Oceanographic and Seismic Studies (CENAOS)
Nicaragua Directorate General of Meteorology