Philippine Sea: Tropical Depression 26 is tracking west-northwestward in Philippine Sea toward Luzon, early Oct. 27

Event

Tropical Depression 26, known in the Philipines as Paeng, is tracking west-northwestward over the Philippine Sea early Oct. 27. As of 11:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 715 km (444 miles) northwest of Koror, Palau.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a typhoon by late Oct. 28 before making landfall over Aurora Province, early Oct. 30. The storm is likely to weaken as it tracks northwestward across Luzon, and exit into the South China Sea late Oct. 30. The system is forecast to strengthen slightly and make a sharp turn to track northwards towards Taiwan through early Nov. 1. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Oct. 27, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 1 over eastern Albay, Catanduanes, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, and eastern Sorsogon provinces. PAGASA has also warned of moderate to heavy rainfall across Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas regions Oct. 28. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days as the system progresses.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration