Philippine Sea: Tropical Storm Nalgae is tracking west-northwest toward Luzon, Philippines, early Oct. 29 /update 3

Event

Tropical Storm Nalgae, known in the Philippines as Paeng, is tracking west-northwest over the Philippine Sea early Oct. 29 following landfalls over the southern tip of Catanduanes Island and Camarines Sur Province in the Philippines earlier in the day. As of 05:00 PST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 285 km (177 miles) east of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will maintain its strength and make another landfall over the Calabarzon Region, Philippines, the afternoon of Oct. 29 before tracking northwestward across the Central Luzon Region and exiting into the South China Sea early Oct. 30. The storm is forecast to strengthen into a typhoon by early Oct. 31 before weakening again into a tropical storm and making a sharp turn to track northwards towards southeastern mainland China through early Nov. 3. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Oct. 29, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has warned of heavy to intense rainfall over the Bicol Region as well as Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Guimaras, Iloilo, Marinduque, Mindoro, northern Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, and Romblon provinces through the morning of Oct. 29 and over the Calabarzon Region as well as Marinduque, Metro Manila, Mindoro, northern Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands, and Romblon provinces from the morning through the evening of Oct. 29. Moderate to heavy rains is likely over the rest of central and northern Philippines. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 3 is in effect for Camarines Norte, northern Camarines Sur, and northern and eastern Quezon provinces. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2 has been issued over Albay, southern Aurora, Bataan, Batangas, Bulacan, the rest of Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Cavite, Laguna, Marinduque, northern and western Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Metro Manila, western Northern Samar, central and southern Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, southern Pangasinan, northern and central Occidental Mindoro, northern and central Oriental Mindoro, the rest of Quezon, Rizal, Romblon, Sorsogon, Tarlac, and Zambales provinces. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 1 is in place over the rest of Luzon as well as the Visayas and northern Mindanao. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days as the system progresses.

As of early Oct. 29, at least 72 people have died and 14 others are missing due to landslides and flooding, including 50 fatalities in Datu Odin Sinsuat Town, Maguindanao del Norte Province. Authorities have pre-emptively evacuated more than 7,300 people from flood-prone areas in Bicol, Central Visayas, Eastern Visayas, Mimaropa, Northern Mindanao, and Western Visayas regions. Thousands of people remain displaced across 113 evacuation centers. Authorities have confirmed power outages across portions of Antique, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Northern Samar, Samar, and Southern Leyte provinces due to the storm.

Officials have canceled several flights departing from Manila Ninoy Aquino International Airport (MNL) Oct. 29 due to adverse weather at the flights' destinations, which include Basco (BSO), Busuanga (USU), Calbayog (CYP), Caticlan (MPH), Cauayan (CYZ), El Nido (ENI), Legazpi (LGP), Masbate (MBT), Naga (WNP), San Jose (SJC), Tablas (TBH), Tuguegarao (TUG), Virac (VRC), and Zamboanga (ZAM). Malaysian Airlines (MH) has also canceled two flights between MNL and Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KUL) Oct. 29. Authorities have suspended sea travel in Bicol Region except in Camarines Norte Province as well as Eastern Samar and Northern Samar provinces; land travel is suspended from mainland Luzon to the island provinces of Catanduanes and Masbate, and to the Visayas and Mindanao to ease traffic congestion on the Maharlika Highway and ports in Albay, Camarines Sur, and Sorsogon provinces. Classes remain suspended in parts of northern and central Philippines.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Further flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration