Philippine Sea: Tropical Storm Nalgae is tracking west-northwest toward Luzon, Philippines, late Oct. 28 /update 2

Event

Tropical Storm Nalgae, known in the Philipines as Paeng, is tracking west-northwest over the Philippine Sea late Oct. 28. As of 22:00 PST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 97 km (60 miles) north of Las Navas.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen further and make landfall over the Bicol Region, Philippines, early Oct. 29 before weakening slightly as it tracks northwestward across the Bicol Region, Calabarzon, then Central Luzon regions. The system will then exit into the South China Sea late Oct. 29. The storm is forecast to strengthen slightly as it makes a sharp turn to track northwards towards southeastern mainland China through early Nov. 2. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Oct. 28, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued Heavy Rainfall warnings for Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. PAGASA has also warned of moderate to heavy rains over several areas, including Quezon, Caraga, Zamboanga Peninsula, and northern Mindanao. Authorities forecast that heavy rains are likely Oct. 29-30 over Aurora, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Romblon and several other areas. Severe Winds warnings are in effect for Luzon, Visayas, and northern Mindanao; officials also warn of strong winds over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, northern and eastern Cagayan, and northern Apayao. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days as the system progresses.

At least 31 people have died and nine others are missing due to landslides and flooding. Authorities have pre-emptively evacuated more than 5.000 people from flood-prone areas in Bicol and Western Visayas regions. As of early Oct. 28, thousands of people remain displaced across 20 evacuation centers.

Officials have canceled several flights departing from Mactan-Cebu International Airport (MCIA) and Manila Ninoy Aquino International Airport (MNL) Oct. 28 due to adverse weather at the flights' destinations, which include Masbate (MBT), and Naga (WNP). Authorities have suspended sea travel in Bicol Region except in Camarines Norte Province as well as Eastern Samar and Northern Samar provinces; land travel is suspended from mainland Luzon to the island provinces of Catanduanes and Masbate, and to the Visayas and Mindanao to ease traffic congestion on the Maharlika Highway and ports in Albay, Camarines Sur, and Sorsogon provinces. Classes remain suspended in parts of northern and central Philippines.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Further flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration