Philippines: Tropical Storm Nalgae is tracking northwest across the far southern Ilocos Region early Oct. 30 /update 5

Event

Tropical Storm Nalgae, known in the Philippines as Paeng, is tracking northwest over far southern Ilocos Region early Oct. 30 following landfall over Batangas Province the afternoon of Oct. 29 and earlier landfalls over the southern tip of Catanduanes Island and Camarines Sur Province early Oct. 29. As of 05:00 PST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 159 km (99 miles) north-northwest of Manila.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will exit into the South China Sea over the coming hours. Nalgae is forecast to strengthen into a typhoon by the afternoon of Oct. 31 while gradually turning to track northwards. The storm is forecast to weaken again into a tropical storm as it gradually turns to track westward towards southern mainland China through early Nov. 4. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Oct. 30, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has warned of moderate to heavy rainfall over Aurora, Bataan, Batanes, northern Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Pangasinan, and Zambales provinces and light to moderate rain over the rest of central and northern Philippines through the morning of Oct. 30. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2 is in effect for western Central Luzon and southern Ilocos regions while Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 1 is in place over the rest of Luzon. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days as the system progresses.

Authorities declared a state of calamity for Aklan Province and the municipality of Tapaz in Capiz Province; authorities are likely to declare additional states of calamity over the coming hours and days. As of early Oct. 30, reports indicate that at least 48 people across the Philippines have died and 22 others are missing due to landslides and flooding. Authorities have pre-emptively evacuated more than 40,000 people from flood-prone areas in Luzon and Visayas. More than 364,000 people remain displaced across 2,125 evacuation centers.

Due to strong winds, flights at Manila Ninoy Aquino International Airport (MNL) were suspended 16:00-22:00 Oct. 29; services have since resumed. However, officials have canceled several flights departing from MNL Oct. 30 due to adverse weather, including Bacolod (BCD), Bali (DPS), Bangkok (BKK), Bohol (TAG), Butuan (BXU), Cagayan de Oro (CGY), Caticlan (MPH), Cebu (CEB), Davao (DVO), Dumaguete (DGT), Hanoi (HAN), Hong Kong (HKG), Iloilo (ILO), Jakarta (CGK), Kuala Lumpur (KUL), Legazpi (LGP), Masbate (MBT), Naga (WNP), Nagoya (NGO), Phnom Penh (PNH), Roxas (RXS), San Jose (SJC), Singapore (SIN), Tacloban (TAC), Virac (VRC), and Zamboanga (ZAM). Authorities have suspended sea travel in Bicol Region except in Camarines Norte Province as well as Eastern Samar and Northern Samar provinces; land travel is suspended from mainland Luzon to the island provinces of Catanduanes and Masbate, and to the Visayas and Mindanao to ease traffic congestion on the Maharlika Highway and ports in Albay, Camarines Sur, and Sorsogon provinces. At least 22 national roads in Bangsamoro, Cagayan Valley, Eastern Visayas, Soccsksargen, and Western Visayas regions are impassable due to flooding, landslides and damage while at least seven national roads have limited access.

Authorities have confirmed power outages are ongoing across portions of Aurora, Batangas, Laguna, Pangasinan, Sorsogon, and Quezon provinces due to the storm. At least 159 houses were totally destroyed by the storm, and another 555 houses partially damaged. Classes remain suspended in parts of northern and central Philippines.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Further flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration