Mozambique Channel: Moderate Tropical Storm Cheneso tracking south in the Mozambique Channel Jan. 27 /update 7

Event

Severe Tropical Storm Cheneso is tracking southward in the Mozambique Channel off the southwestern coast of Madagascar Jan. 27. As of 15:00 EAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 161 km (100 miles) east-southeast of Europa Island.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen into a severe tropical storm as it continues moving southward into early Jan. 28 before turning south-southeast later in the day, remaining well off Madagascar's southwest coast. Cheneso is then likely to weaken as it tracks southeastward into the Indian Ocean and away from Madagascar late Jan. 28-30. Although it is not forecast to make another landfall, Cheneso is likely to impact the western and southwestern coasts of Madagascar as it passes over the coming days. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Jan. 27, the Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology has issued blue cyclone alerts (indicating the threat level is receding) for Belon'i Tsiribihina, Manja, and Morondava districts in Menabe Region and Morombe and Toliara I-II districts in Atsimo-Andrefana Region. While the risk is beginning to diminish, strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall are possible in these areas Jan. 27-early 28. Additionally, heavy rainfall of 3-5 cm (1.2-2 inches) is forecast across Atsimo-Atsinanana, and Melaky regions Jan. 27-28. Authorities have issued yellow heavy rain warnings for Atsimo-Atsinanana. Melaky, and Menabe regions, as well as Taolagnaro District in Ansoy region. Red strong wind warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) have been issued for parts of the western, southwestern, and southeastern coastlines, as well as yellow warnings for parts of the western coastline. Red strong swell warnings have been issued for parts of the western, southwestern, and southeastern coastlines, with yellow warnings being in effect for parts of the western and northwestern coastlines. Authorities will likely publish new advisories or update/rescind existing alerts throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

The system previously made landfall as a moderate tropical storm over Sava Region in northeastern Madagascar on Jan. 19 and largely dissipated as it tracked southwestward over northern and west-central Madagascar Jan. 20-23 before reforming after emerging into the Mozambique Channel Jan. 24. Flooding-related disruptions have been reported across many parts of northern and central Madagascar during the passage of the storm system. As of Jan. 27, the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC) has reported 16 storm-related fatalities; at least 19 other people are missing. The storm has impacted more than 55,000 people across the country and has displaced more than 25,000 people. Over 13,000 homes have been damaged and more than 500 homes have been destroyed by flooding across the affected areas. Cheneso has also damaged dozens of schools and other infrastructure and road networks have been heavily disrupted, including along sections of several national highways. Authorities have evacuated around 250 residents in the town of Ampitatafika on the outskirts of Antananarivo due to flooding along the Sisaony River. Areas where the ground is already saturated will be particularly susceptible to flooding during further heavy downpours associated with the storm system.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Further evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible where weather conditions prove hazardous. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology