Mozambique Channel: Tropical Cyclone Cheneso tracking south-southeastward in Mozambique Channel Jan. 29 /update 8

Event

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso is tracking south-southeastward in the Mozambique Channel off the southwestern coast of Madagascar Jan. 29. As of 15:00 EAT Jan. 28, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 411 km (255 miles) south-southeast of Europa Island.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken as it tracks generally southeastward into the southwestern Indian Ocean away from southern Madagascar Jan. 29-30. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days. Adverse weather associated with the storm system is likely to persist across parts of southern Madagascar through at least Jan. 29; disruptions associated with Cheneso were ongoing across much of the country as of Jan. 28.

As of Jan. 29, the Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology has rescinded all cyclone alerts associated with Cheneso; however, strong winds and rough seas are likely to persist over coastal areas through at least Jan. 29. Additionally, red strong winds and strong swell warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) remain in place across southwestern and southeastern coastal areas, and yellow warnings are in place over parts of the western coast. Authorities will likely publish new advisories or update/rescind existing alerts throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

The system previously made landfall as a moderate tropical storm over Sava Region in northeastern Madagascar Jan. 19 and largely dissipated as it tracked southwestward over northern and west-central Madagascar Jan. 20-23. Cheneso then reformed after emerging into the Mozambique Channel Jan. 24 and moved slowly southward off the western coast Jan. 25-28. Flooding-related disruptions have been reported across many parts of Madagascar during the passage of the storm system. As of late Jan. 28, the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC) had reported 25 storm-related fatalities; at least 21 other people are missing. The storm has impacted more than 80,000 people across the country and has displaced more than 35,000 people. Over 24,000 homes have been damaged and more than 1,000 homes have been destroyed by flooding across the affected areas. Cheneso has also damaged dozens of schools and other infrastructure and road networks have been heavily disrupted, including along sections of several national highways. Authorities have evacuated more than 500 residents in the town of Ampitatafika on the outskirts of Antananarivo due to flooding along the Sisaony River. Areas where the ground is already saturated will be particularly susceptible to flooding during further heavy downpours associated with the storm system.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Further evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible where weather conditions prove hazardous. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports in the region and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology