Syria, Iraq: Additional Turkish airstrikes remain possible in northern regions of both countries through late February /update 5

Event

Turkey's air campaign in Syria and Iraq will probably persist through late February. The Turkish Air Force has conducted a series of airstrikes against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Aleppo, Ar-Raqqa, and Al-Hasakah in Syria and against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in northern Iraq. Dozens of SDF fighters and civilians have been killed since the airstrikes began Nov. 20.

Retaliatory Strikes
Kurdish forces in Syria will likely launch retaliatory mortar and rocket artillery strikes against border towns in Turkey, especially those where Turkish troops are staging, as the air offensive progresses. However, any such attacks will likely be sporadic rather than sustained and probably largely restricted to the immediate border area. Cross-border artillery fire is unlikely to pose a significant threat to southeastern population centers at greater distances from Syria, such as Gaziantep, Diyarbakir, and Sanliurfa.

Turkish military operations could also motivate Kurdish militant groups within Turkey, mainly the PKK and its offshoot, the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK), to conduct bombings and other terror attacks in retaliation. However, the PKK and TAK's ability to operate in Turkey has significantly degraded due to an ongoing large-scale anti-terror operation in the Kurdish southeast and the generally heightened presence of government military units supporting operations in Syria. Turkish provinces with the highest potential for PKK/TAK activity include Bingol, Diyarbakir, Hakkari, Sanliurfa, Siirt, Sirnak, and Tunceli.

Civil Unrest
Political, student, and civil society groups opposed to Erdogan's administration could stage anti-war protests in various cities across Turkey. Although such demonstrations will most likely occur in the country's predominantly Kurdish southeast, similar rallies cannot be ruled out in major western cities, such as Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir.

Similarly, large demonstrations remain likely in Iraq and Syria in condemnation of Turkey's military operations in those countries. Any protests that may materialize will probably draw large crowds. Authorities will almost certainly deploy to provide security and to ensure demonstrations do not devolve into violence. Localized transport and business disruptions are likely near all protest sites.

Transport and Supply Chain Disruptions
Road closures associated with possible troop movements or other provisional security restrictions imposed as part of the air campaign could prompt localized transport and supply chain disruptions over the coming weeks. Authorities may declare special security zones - areas to which access is restricted or completely denied - with little-to-no warning, based on operational necessity. Officials could also impose a 5-km (3-mile)-wide special security zone on the Turkish side of the border with Syria, extending from the town of Karkamis in Gaziantep Province to Cizre in Sirnak Province. Transport in Turkey's southeast may also be complicated by other special security zones related to domestic anti-terror operations that are in force in parts of Bingol, Hakkari, Tunceli, and Sirnak provinces. Authorities typically declare such restricted areas for two weeks at a time, but there is no legal limit on the number of extensions to these restrictions.

Context

The Turkish Air Force launched Operation Claw-Sword (Pence-Kilic Operasyonu) Nov. 20 to target fighters affiliated with the SDF and the People's Defense Units (YPG) in Syria. The offensive notably commenced after the Nov. 13 militant attack in Istanbul, which killed six people and wounded 81 others. Turkey blamed the attack on the YPG, which it says is closely tied to the PKK militant group in Iraq. As part of the air offensive, Ankara has also conducted airstrikes against PKK military bases in northern Iraq. Ankara has reportedly demanded that Moscow and Washington urge the SDF to withdraw from Manbij, Tal Rifaat, and Ayn al-Arab or it will launch its threatened ground operation.

Advice

If operating in northern Syria, northern Iraq, and/or southeastern Turkey, exercise extreme caution due to possible airstrikes and shelling. Strictly keep away from areas near the Turkish-Syrian and Turkish-Iraqi borders. Avoid all military installations, troop convoys, and concentrations of security forces, as these may be targeted for attack by Turkey. Heed the instructions of local authorities, especially concerning any special security zones or military closure areas that may be declared. Avoid any protests that may materialize in Iraq or Syria.