Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of Jan. 31 /update 205

Event

Military operations continue in Ukraine's southern and eastern regions as of Jan. 31. Ground combat remains focused in the eastern Donbas area. Russian forces are making progress in Bakhmut following the capture of Soledar in the Donetsk Region Jan. 16; intense fighting continues in the surrounding area. Russian troops attacked several settlements around Bakhmut, including Krasna Hora and Paraskoviivka in the north and Ivanske in the south. As a result, Ukrainian defenders in nearby Bakhmut will likely come under increased pressure from the northern and southern directions in the coming days; Russian troops will probably attempt to cut off Bakhmut. Elsewhere in Donetsk, Russian forces are assaulting settlements surrounding Avdiivka and are fighting within Marinka but have not made any significant gains in recent days.

Ukraine's offensive activity remains focused in Luhansk Region. Combat is focused around the Svatove-Kreminna front, where both sides are engaged in several positional battles. Russian forces attacked positions west of Kerimina, including Bilohorivka, Dibrova, and Yampolivka, Jan. 29-30. No significant territory has changed hands in recent days. Russian forces continue artillery attacks along the front line further south in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

Moscow is continuing its campaign of air, missile, and drone strikes across Ukraine, launching a major missile attack on targets across Ukraine Jan. 30. Moscow has increased its strikes on targets outside of the main conflict zone, likely intending to force Ukraine to exhaust its counter-battery resources. Explosions were reported in several regions, including Kharkiv and Kherson. Ukrainian officials reported at least five deaths and several injuries as a result of Russian shelling. Moscow will almost certainly continue sporadic waves of attacks across Ukraine in the coming weeks; targets will include civilian energy infrastructure, which will likely cause emergency power outages.

Disruptions and Shortages
Cumulative damage to the power supply network continues to affect major cities. Following each airstrike on critical infrastructure, power is restored, but repairs become more complex. Ukrenergo, the national power company, continues to implement periodic restrictions on energy consumption, including rolling blackouts, impacting specific regions to stabilize the grid or carry out repairs. Short-notice disruptions to energy and water supplies due to damage to infrastructure are likely immediately following Russian airstrikes.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv. Passenger rail services are operating between Kyiv and Kherson and between Kyiv and Mykolaiv. However, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation operations remain suspended.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Feb. 19. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 00:01-05:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 23:00-05:00. Additionally, the nightly curfew in Kharkiv Region is in effect 23:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russian forces will likely continue their offensive operations in the Donetsk Region with the goal of taking a strategically-important city such as Bakhmut or Avdiivka, which they can present as a success to a domestic audience with the aim of maintaining support for the war. However, frontal assaults in recent weeks have yielded limited progress while resulting in significant Russian casualties.

Russia may seek to step-up counterattacks in the Luhansk Region to regain the offensive initiative. However, the situation in the Luhansk Region has remained static for several weeks, and Russian forces likely lack the combat potential to mount a major counteroffensive in the short term. Ukrainian troops in the region have largely conducted limited ground assaults in recent weeks while they continue to consolidate control over territory recaptured in recent months. Elsewhere, Moscow will likely seek to continue establishing effective defensive postures following coordinated and uncoordinated withdrawals in Luhansk, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions.

Moscow has sought to escalate the conflict in alternative ways in an apparent effort to force Ukraine to capitulate and coerce its allies to reduce their support. This includes increased air, missile, and drone strikes targeting Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, disrupting power, water, and heating services over the winter period. Since Jan. 1, Moscow has increasingly relied on drones to conduct these attacks, likely to conserve diminished missile stocks. Drones are more susceptible to Ukrainian air defense systems; most or all are shot down before hitting their targets. Nonetheless, Ukrainian officials believe Russia maintains enough missiles to launch multiple barrages, and Ukrainian air defense systems are being forced to expend costly and finite resources repelling repeated drone attacks. Successful attacks will likely result in widespread utility outages and collateral damage to civilians.

Kyiv and Moscow will look to strengthen their combat power as spring approaches and battlefield stalemates continue. Moscow may deploy 100,000 fresh troops from reservists mobilized by Putin in September 2022, while Ukraine, apart from receiving western tanks, will likely seek additional support from western allies. Nonetheless, it is unclear whether Russia's boost in personnel or Kyiv's increased western support will help either achieve its overall goals as the weather warms.

As the conflict remains primarily concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service