Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle tracking southward off eastern Australia as of afternoon Feb. 9 /update 1

Event

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is tracking southward in the Coral Sea, off eastern Australia, the afternoon of Feb. 9. As of 13:00 AEST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 774 km (481 miles) east of Cairns, Australia.

Forecast models indicate the system will turn to track southeastward and strengthen rapidly into a Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone by late Feb. 10, passing well south of New Caledonia through early Feb. 11. Gabrielle is likely to weaken into a Category 2 Tropical Cyclone and make a close approach to Norfolk Island, Australia, early Feb. 12, passing south of the island before making a close approach to far northern New Zealand later in the day. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Feb. 9, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has warned that large waves and strong winds are likely across the exposed east coastal areas of Queensland Feb. 9-10 and across Norfolk Island Feb. 11-12. Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days as the storm progresses.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a severe health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Meteo France New Caledonia
New Zealand MetService